WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[WindRunner]

I'd be looking for a move away from Luzon to be starting in the next 12-24 hours. Storms that big have a lot of momentum, and turning on a dime isn't really part of their "training."

[HURAKAN]

Multi-agency track

[Infdidoll]

Ha, of course...my husband's going away again for a week. That means the typhoon will come this way. I'm starting to think my husband consults with these things so he knows when to leave. Not cool.

[oaba09]

I think it's starting to move northwards now....I don't know, my eyes could playing tricks on me...I really hope it doesn't make a landfall...

[cycloneye]

JMA 12 UTC Warning

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 22 October 2009
<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°40'(18.7°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW520km(280NM)
SE370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°25'(20.4°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=65kts

The latest track moves it slowly north of mainland Luzon and in that proccess it weakens to a tropical storm.

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.8N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.2N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.5N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

I wonder what the weather is in the northern parts of the country....It seems like Lupit will be moving very slowly......What worries is the amount of rainfall that this system mght bring...

[ozonepete]

I wonder what the weather is in the northern parts of the country....It seems like Lupit will be moving very slowly......What worries is the amount of rainfall that this system mght bring...

Hey oaba09, don't worry. Much of the rain and all of the heavy rain has stayed offshore so far and looks like it will never get to you. The only place that might get heavy rain is Appari. LUPIT has been mostly stationary the last 12 hours with a slight drift to the west during the last few. I can see a shortwave trough coming in from the west-northwest now. It will give LUPIT a little shove towards the east and north in the next few hours. Once that happens it will start to accelerate northward into the westerlies. During all of this the bulk of its rains will remain offshore. So a little more drifting today, but by tonight we should see a distinct northward motion.

[ozonepete]

Multi-agency track

Mornin' Hurakan. Where did you get that chart? That's a great one.

[oaba09]

I wonder what the weather is in the northern parts of the country....It seems like Lupit will be moving very slowly......What worries is the amount of rainfall that this system mght bring...

Hey oaba09, don't worry. Much of the rain and all of the heavy rain has stayed offshore so far and looks like it will never get to you. The only place that might get heavy rain is Appari. LUPIT has been mostly stationary the last 12 hours with a slight drift to the west during the last few. I can see a shortwave trough coming in from the west-northwest now. It will give LUPIT a little shove towards the east and north in the next few hours. Once that happens it will start to accelerate northward into the westerlies. During all of this the bulk of its rains will remain offshore. So a little more drifting today, but by tonight we should see a distinct northward motion.

Great news for us then!!! Hopefully, Lupit doesn't pull off any surprises

[oaba09]

we're watching the build up near guam...The possibility of a weather disturbance formation seems to be low for now...

[Nika]

I guess Pete is the Wizzard of OZ(one)

[Nika]

sorry, only one Z

[ozonepete]

we're watching the build up near guam...The possibility of a weather disturbance formation seems to be low for now...

Yes, we're all watching it too. Therre's plenty of time. But that is another topic so it goes in a different thread.

[ozonepete]

I guess Pete is the Wizzard of OZ(one)

HaHa.

[ozonepete]

I can see a distinct channel opening to the northeast now, and the circulation of LUPIT appears to be getting pulled into it. Really looks like a northward turn is imminent.

(Sorry I can't post images from here.)

[oaba09]

I can see a distinct channel opening to the northeast now, and the circulation of LUPIT appears to be getting pulled into it. Really looks like a northward turn is imminent.

(Sorry I can't post images from here.)

No worries, I can see it on the satellite loop...

Yeah, it seems like your right This is great news!!!

I guess our prayers worked...

[JTE50]

it's raining pretty hard and heavy here now in Aparri, Philippines. Looks like we are not going to escape Lupit's rain afterall. Local time is about 11pm.

[oaba09]

it's raining pretty hard and heavy here now in Aparri, Philippines. Looks like we are not going to escape Lupit's rain afterall. Local time is about 11pm.

Has it been like that for the last couple of hours???

[JTE50]

for about the past hour - hope there's not too much flooding on the north side here.