WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[ozonepete]

it's raining pretty hard and heavy here now in Aparri, Philippines. Looks like we are not going to escape Lupit's rain afterall. Local time is about 11pm.

Hi Jim, It looks like you guys are the only ones who'll get the rain and some wind since at this time the models are coming to consensus that LUPIT will turn north or northeast within 12 hours. They are all over the place on how close it will get to you before the recurve. My educated guess is not too much closer. there's some indication on the satellite loops that it may be starting to turn north now.

[oaba09]

for about the past hour - hope there's not too much flooding on the north side here.

Good luck and stay safe.....Flooding is a big problem here in our country

[ozonepete]

for about the past hour - hope there's not too much flooding on the north side here.

Good luck and stay safe.....Flooding is a big problem here in our country

Yeah, be careful Jim.

[oaba09]

I'm seeing a little NE movement from Lupit...This is good

[Infdidoll]

I wonder what the latest numbers are...It looks, to me, like the eye may be reforming. Any news on if it is regaining strength?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

[HURAKAN]

Large eye

[Infdidoll]

Thank you, Hurakan! Nice to have confirmation from someone better at looking at these things...

Guess it's time to get stocked up, cleaned up and prepared. God knows how much strength it could regain on the return trip back this way.

[I-wall]

I wonder what the latest numbers are...It looks, to me, like the eye may be reforming. Any news on if it is regaining strength?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

I think that's dry air, not an eye. I havent heard any forecasts that call for strengthening....I believe this is supposed to maintain intensity in the short term, but shouldnt get any stronger.

[ozonepete]

Large eye

Yeah, it just cleared out so you can see it on IR now.

BTW, Hurakan, did you see my post before? I wanted to know where you got that multi-agency track forecast chart that showed the Asian Agencies forecast tracks.

[Infdidoll]

I wonder what the latest numbers are...It looks, to me, like the eye may be reforming. Any news on if it is regaining strength?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

I think that's dry air, not an eye. I havent heard any forecasts that call for strengthening....I believe this is supposed to maintain intensity in the short term, but shouldnt get any stronger.

Thank you! Hoping you're right and it doesn't regain too much strength tracking back northward. Will have to wait a few more frames to get clarification on what's going on. In the meantime, it's way past my bedtime! Goodnight and continued good luck to the Philippines.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better than a few hours ago

[ozonepete]

I wonder what the latest numbers are...It looks, to me, like the eye may be reforming. Any news on if it is regaining strength?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

I think that's dry air, not an eye. I havent heard any forecasts that call for strengthening....I believe this is supposed to maintain intensity in the short term, but shouldnt get any stronger.

I've been wondering myself, but the microwave satellite Hurakan just posted makes me think it is an eye. With an intensity estimate of 65 knots, and some pretty sudden and uneven convection fluctuations going on, it wouldn't surprise me if an eye is trying to reform in there. I guess we'll have to see what the next few hours shows.

Also, it seems to be moving north or northwest now, which will take it over warmer water that wasn't upwelled. But yes, there will be dry air issues, especially on the northwestern side.

[I-wall]

I wonder what the latest numbers are...It looks, to me, like the eye may be reforming. Any news on if it is regaining strength?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

I think that's dry air, not an eye. I havent heard any forecasts that call for strengthening....I believe this is supposed to maintain intensity in the short term, but shouldnt get any stronger.

Thank you! Hoping you're right and it doesn't regain too much strength tracking back northward. Will have to wait a few more frames to get clarification on what's going on. In the meantime, it's way past my bedtime! Goodnight and continued good luck to the Philippines.

I may have been wrong. That microwave image that Hurakan posted shows a well defined eye, so maybe it is clearing out on IR. The other satellite image he posted indicates that it might be getting better organized, but I still dont see much strengthening anytime soon.

[ozonepete]

Hey I-Wall, I edited my post to add:

Also, it seems to be moving north or northwest now, which will take it over warmer water that wasn't upwelled. But yes, there will be dry air issues, especially on the northwestern side.

So we have some positives and negatives. I'm in your camp though, overall. I don't expect any significant strengthening.

[Nika]

Pete..., I meant... you have brilliant intuition! and as I hope also supernatural power to stop and/or move out typhoons

Please, can anybody answer:

If the system is stationary or moves back, should it weaken always during this period? Because the warm "fuel" in this engine below is being diluted by rain, hail(?)... How "deep" is the sea surface layer with defined temperature (SST), resp. vertical gradient in open sea (here in typhoon alley)? I try to find some graphs "for nerds", but did not...

[ozonepete]

Pete..., I meant... you have brilliant intuition! and as I hope also supernatural power to stop and/or move out typhoons

Please, can anybody answer:

If the system is stationary or moves back, should it weaken always during this period? Because the warm "fuel" in this engine below is being diluted by rain, hail(?)... How "deep" is the sea surface layer with defined temperature (SST), resp. vertical gradient in open sea (here in typhoon alley)? I try to find some graphs "for nerds", but did not...

Stationary storms gradually suck large amounts of heat out of the surface waters. so if they stay around too long, that gradually causes the cooler water beneath to come to the surface, and that cooler water is not sufficient to maintain the storm anymore so it weakens. It's called "upwelling". Obviously the deeper the warm water layer is, the longer the storm can linger before it weakens.=, and the stornger it will get if it keeps moving over a large patch of very warm very deep ocean water. That's why Katrina (2005) became so strong. It went over very warm very deep water in the central Gulf of Mexico.


Here's a really good site that shows Ocean Heat Content (OHC).
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/np.html

[metenthusiast]

Hi guys! It's been both tedious and wonderful tracking Lupit. The weather disturbance that's seems to be forming near Guam, does it already have a thread here in storm2k?

[ozonepete]

Hi guys! It's been both tedious and wonderful tracking Lupit. The weather disturbance that's seems to be forming near Guam, does it already have a thread here in storm2k?

No, not yet. It has to be labeled what they call an "invest". You can keep checking this Navy site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
When an area is declared an invest (area of interest) you'll see a new invest with a new number under the West PAcific category on the left side of the screen.

When the JTWC/Navy declares it an invest, Storm2k will add a thread to the list right away. Occassionally someone may put up a thread beforehand. So check the titles of the threads now and again and you'll find it sooner or later if it keeps developing.

[cycloneye]

Hi guys! It's been both tedious and wonderful tracking Lupit. The weather disturbance that's seems to be forming near Guam, does it already have a thread here in storm2k?

No thread yet as it is not a invest yet.As soon it is a invest,a thread will be made in this forum by any member.

[metenthusiast]

Hi guys! It's been both tedious and wonderful tracking Lupit. The weather disturbance that's seems to be forming near Guam, does it already have a thread here in storm2k?

No thread yet as it is not a invest yet.As soon it is a invest,a thread will be made in this forum by any member.

Thanks cycloneye! These storm discussions has really caught up my interest and I'm learning a lot of new things by just listening to your discussions.

Thanks again!