Mozambique Channel: Invest 91S

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[Cookie]

looks a bit of a mess at the moment.

[vbhoutex]

looks a bit of a mess at the moment.

Looks to be disipating. If it is moving South then it would be moving into cooler waters also, which might explain the poor appearance.

[HURAKAN]

It's back.

[Crostorm]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.7S 42.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF ANTANANA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 121513Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS 15
TO 20 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY
DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS POSITIONED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE REGION ARE INTRODUCING
COOL, DRY AIR THAT IS STALLING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
42.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LWEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. A 130624Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KTS UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. THE LLCC IS TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE WEST AN WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER IT IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION
OF FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD THE LLCC SLOW DOWN, INCREASED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

14/0230 UTC 20.9S 37.5E T1.5/1.5 91S -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 40.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 39.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435NM WEST OF ANTANA-
NARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
131456Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED ABOUT 90NM EAST OF AN AREA OF POORLY-ORGANIZED,
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. A 131518Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A DEFINED
LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SLP NEAR 1008MB AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS UNDER MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND SST IS FAVORABLE, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR
THE CORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[HURAKAN]