WPAC: Invest 91W

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAUG2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZAUG2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110000Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
33.2N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
134.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
A 110306Z 37 GHZ TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE DEVELOPING LLCC FROM THE WEST AND LOW-LEVEL CURVED INFLOW
FROM THE EAST. A 110106Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC STILL LACKS
CONSOLIDATION AND IS ILL-DEFINED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LACKS A DEFINED
EXHAUST CHANNEL, THOUGH A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TUTT
(TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM COULD START TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TUG. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

I hope that Taiwan and China won't be affected if this invest develops.

[beaufort12]

Glad to see a thread on this, the area's been festering for a couple days, but all the attention has been rightfully paid to Taiwan and the mainland. Unfortunately, with the persistence, and the tendency for most things that have come through this area to develop, it seems to me like there's more than just a 'fair' chance of development.

[HURAKAN]

Not looking too healthy at the moment

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAUG2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZAUG2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110000Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
33.2N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
134.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
A 110306Z 37 GHZ TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE DEVELOPING LLCC FROM THE WEST AND LOW-LEVEL CURVED INFLOW
FROM THE EAST. A 110106Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC STILL LACKS
CONSOLIDATION AND IS ILL-DEFINED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LACKS A DEFINED
EXHAUST CHANNEL, THOUGH A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM COULD START TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TUG. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121000Z-130600ZAUG2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120753ZAUG2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 120600Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
32.6N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 120900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120209Z TRMM IMAGE DOES SHOW SOME
SPIRAL BANDING AND A 120047Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A 15- TO 20-KNOT
LLCC, BUT THE SHEARED CONVECTION IS EVIDENCE OF AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION, THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS
FILLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, PREVENTING ANY POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVED NATURE OF THE LLCC COUPLED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 1.A.(1) WITH FINAL
WARNING FOR TS 10W.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection over Luzon

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130100Z-130600ZAUG2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZAUG2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 120600Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
32.6N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 120900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED 180 NM WEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
A SPIRAL OF DEEPER CONVECTION AS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC
FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 122138Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CAUSING THE LARGE
SEPARATION OF CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS HAS CONTINUED TO HAMPER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IS
CAUSING THE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 143.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LLCC. INFRARED IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS, BUT AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD, DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. A 121957Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED DIRECTION WITH 10-15
KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS AN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF LLCC. VWS IS ALSO LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC, HELPING TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC AND LOW VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A FAIR
AND UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN