NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952009.invest
FSTDA
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200908272242
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2009, DB, O, 2009082718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952009
EP, 95, 2009082618, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1071W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1088W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009082706, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1104W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009082712, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1120W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009082718, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1136W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
18z TWO:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
The currently mislabled 22Z TWD:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N115W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1504 UTC INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
ELONGATED ALONG A SW-NE AXIS AND MAY CONSIST OF A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED VORTICES. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS
LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN (14E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN22 PGTW 280800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 114.5W TO 12.7N 121.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 114.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.4W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 114.8W, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
VENTILATION MECHANISMS ALOFT. A 280308Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO TH LLCC FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE ALSO SMALL CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
PRESENT ON BOTH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.6W//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
.BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB CONTINUES
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW AND HAD INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION WAS MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW. AN OVERNIGHT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT...480 NM SE
QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WITH WWIII
GUIDANCE FORECASTING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN THE SE QUADRANT.
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT OVER THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INCREASE
AND MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODESTLY WARM IN THE PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W TO WNW.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
TD 13-E
EP, 13, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1014W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M,
EP, 13, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1014W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
04Z TWD:
.BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 12N120W IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ROUGHLY 360 NM SE OF CENTER AND
WITHIN 180 NM NW OF CENTER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO BAND WITHIN 240 NM
OVER NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
It isn't really noticable on a zoomed in loop, but after looking at the Pacific basin loop, it seems that the circulation is getting elongated on a southwest-northeast axis. I'm not sure if this is something that is going to get upgraded anytime soon.
The loop is pretty darn cool with everything going on. You've got 02-C, Hilda remnant, this invest, the western edge of 13-E, and a very lonesome low around 135°:
.BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 12N120W IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ROUGHLY 360 NM SE OF CENTER AND
WITHIN 180 NM NW OF CENTER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO BAND WITHIN 240 NM
OVER NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
It isn't really noticable on a zoomed in loop, but after looking at the Pacific basin loop, it seems that the circulation is getting elongated on a southwest-northeast axis. I'm not sure if this is something that is going to get upgraded anytime soon.
The loop is pretty darn cool with everything going on. You've got 02-C, Hilda remnant, this invest, the western edge of 13-E, and a very lonesome low around 135°:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
29/0600 UTC 12.2N 120.3W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific
EP, 95, 2009082906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1205W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 210, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 95, 2009082906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1205W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 210, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN22 PGTW 290800
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280751Z AUG 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 280800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 119.5W TO 13.7N 124.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 290600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 120.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300800Z.
//
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139192
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E
WTPZ44 KNHC 291445
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS
AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0...THEREFORE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING
STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH TWO
SCENARIOS DEPICTED. THE FIRST IS SHOWN BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET
AND GFDL...WHICH SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...SEEMINGLY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER HURRICANE JIMENA. THE GFS...NOGAPS AND
GFDL SHOW THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET
DOES NOT SHOW IT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS
SHOWN BY THE HWRF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAMS...WHICH SHOW A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SECOND SCENARIO...
ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION WITH
JIMENA. THE FORECAST SPEED IS KEPT SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THE DEPRESSION BEING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
STRENGTHENING. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND THEN SHOWS A
LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT APPROACHES 20N ON THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.3N 121.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.0N 122.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 122.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 122.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS
AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0...THEREFORE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING
STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH TWO
SCENARIOS DEPICTED. THE FIRST IS SHOWN BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET
AND GFDL...WHICH SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...SEEMINGLY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER HURRICANE JIMENA. THE GFS...NOGAPS AND
GFDL SHOW THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET
DOES NOT SHOW IT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS
SHOWN BY THE HWRF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAMS...WHICH SHOW A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SECOND SCENARIO...
ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION WITH
JIMENA. THE FORECAST SPEED IS KEPT SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THE DEPRESSION BEING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
STRENGTHENING. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND THEN SHOWS A
LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT APPROACHES 20N ON THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.3N 121.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.0N 122.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 122.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 122.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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