ATL : INVEST 95L

[Cyclenall]

It seems the consensus is for this to go poof.

This may drop dead before it ever has a chance to become Fred.

It should be called Drop Dead Fred like the movie from 1991.

There wasn't a reason why the NHC put this to medium, it just went up to that.

[MetroMike]

Climatology suggests this shall develop....but this year I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[cycloneye]

First GFDL plots only are for 48 hours.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.7 26.1 280./19.0
6 14.2 26.2 346./ 5.0
12 15.5 27.5 315./18.2
18 16.0 29.1 288./16.8
24 16.5 29.9 300./ 8.4
30 17.2 31.6 293./17.9
36 17.7 32.6 297./10.6
42 18.5 34.1 299./16.2
48 17.8 35.9 250./18.7

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS ERIKA HAS DIMINISHED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

[Macrocane]

Noticed MJO currently unfavorable:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly_1.gif

Any idea regarding its movement during the next couple of weeks?
Is favorable MJO any more (or less) significant during an El Nino season?

El nino and mjo arent related at all

"Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean." Taken from the MJO weekly update.

"Oceanic responses to relatively strong Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) and background winds controlled by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are examined. The MJO’s arrival excites dominant downwelling and upwelling Kelvin waves during El Niño developing (pre-El Niño: PEN) and other (non-PEN) phases, respectively. These opposite signals come from background wind directions under different ENSO phases and exert opposite impacts on SST. In addition, MJO convection itself develops accompanied by larger surface wind variations during PEN phases, which can be related to the interactive amplifications of synoptic- and planetary-scale disturbances when westerly wind bursts occur. Consequently, the strength of westerly forcing and its oceanic response during PEN phases are larger than that of the corresponding easterly forcing and its response during non-PEN phases. These results suggest that modulations of MJO amplitude and structure under the background westerly and easterly winds associated with ENSO phases exert opposite but asymmetric impacts on the ocean." An abstract of a research named The Oceanic Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation and ENSO

Back on topic, I think that if 95-L develops it will be another weakling and not-exciting storm to track, but it appears that models are in good agrrement developing a fairly strong system from the tropical wave behind 95-L, let's see what happens, maybe a similar Ana-Bill scenario will happen again.

[clfenwi]

Noticed MJO currently unfavorable:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly_1.gif

Any idea regarding its movement during the next couple of weeks?
Is favorable MJO any more (or less) significant during an El Nino season?

El nino and mjo arent related at all

While the two aren't related, it could still be true that MJO is more significant during an El Nino than in other times.

Let us say that conditions for tropical cyclogenesis are on a scale of 0-10, where 0 means nothing forms and 10 means that a little bit of vorticity over my hot tub generates a tropical storm. Furthermore, let us say that MJO is a +/-1 contributor to this point scale.

When there are exceptionally favorable conditions, like in 2005, (whose overall conditions we'll rate as an 8 on this hypothetical scale), MJO doesn't matter that much, because even when it's in an unfavorable state, it doesn't bring down the score that much and when it is favorable, the "boost" it brings is marginal; there's already so much forming that its added benefits aren't really noticed.

However, in an El Nino, where overall conditions rate may rate 1,2 or 3, MJO becomes a big deal, as it can have a >33% effect on the score.

While, the numbers, of course, are made up, they do serve to demonstrate that anything that adds to favorable conditions is more significant the less favorable conditions are.

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Its best chance will be if it can stay around 12-13°N as shear is low there. Anything north of 15°N is doomsday for it.

[thetruesms]

I must say, I do like that pretty curvature to it, but I'm not really liking much else at the moment. It'll be something to keep an eye on for the time being, though.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 95, 2009090500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 275W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

635
WHXX01 KWBC 050020
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0020 UTC SAT SEP 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20090905 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090905 0000 090905 1200 090906 0000 090906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 27.5W 15.7N 30.2W 17.0N 32.9W 18.2N 35.8W
BAMD 14.3N 27.5W 16.3N 29.9W 18.6N 31.8W 21.1N 33.1W
BAMM 14.3N 27.5W 16.0N 30.2W 17.9N 32.6W 19.8N 34.7W
LBAR 14.3N 27.5W 16.1N 30.6W 18.2N 33.2W 20.2N 35.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090907 0000 090908 0000 090909 0000 090910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 38.5W 20.8N 43.0W 21.9N 46.1W 23.5N 47.1W
BAMD 23.2N 33.1W 23.3N 31.7W 21.5N 32.7W 22.2N 34.0W
BAMM 21.4N 36.4W 24.6N 38.7W 27.2N 39.7W 30.0N 38.8W
LBAR 21.6N 36.1W 23.0N 36.7W 23.1N 36.9W 24.2N 35.9W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 27.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 23.9W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 20.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W S
OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N26W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD MASS
FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WITHIN A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


$$
FORMOSA

[HURAKAN]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 95, 2009090500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 275W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Sanibel]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

Why do you say that?

[HURAKAN]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

Why do you say that?

b/c the system won't probably intensity much over the next few days and weak systems tend to move west.

[fasterdisaster]

It's dying a painful death. Unless dmax can ramp things up this one's a goner.

[HURAKAN]

It's dying a painful death. Unless dmax can ramp things up this one's a goner.

Are you seeing the same storm I'm seeing? I know the road its difficult but it doesn't seem to be dying at the moment.

[Sanibel]

Drying out with bad structure. Agree with fasterdisaster.