WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 59.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.0S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.1S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 29.3S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 32.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TC 11S. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TC 11S AROUND THE CUT-
OFF LOW HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE CUTOFF LOW IS
SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION
OF TC 11S DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS NOT ADEQUATELY PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE OR ITS IMPACT ON TC 11S OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTS
THAT TC 11S WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD TOWARDS THE LLCC IN THE SOUTH-
WEST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE POTENTIALLY INTRODUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
COULD KEEP THE LLCC FROM STRENGTHENING AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU
36 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 11S AND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST REORIENTS AND TRACKS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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