WTIO30 FMEE 021816
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-FAMI)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 45.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/03 18 UTC: 22.2S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/02/04 06 UTC: 23.4S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/04 18 UTC: 24.9S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/02/05 06 UTC: 28.0S/61.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/02/05 18 UTC: 33.2S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FAMI IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND BUT STRONG WINDS SHOULD EXIST
ALONG
THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.
IT'S NOT SURE THAT THE RESIDUEL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD
BE
SUCCESSFULL IN SHIFTING ACROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND IN BEEING OVERSEA
AGAIN ON ITS EAST.
SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODEL SUGGEST THAT A NEW LOW SHOULD DEEPENING
OVERSEA
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE SOUTH OF 20S IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH
THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
THE MENTIONNED FORECAST IN THIS WARNING TRACKS ANYWAY EITHER THE
RESIDUAL
LOW OR THE NEW ONE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY EASTWARDS IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN ITS NORTH
AND
SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REINTENSIFY DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BECOMING
GRADUALLY LESS FAV
OURABLE).=
NNNN
