SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT (14P)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Rarogirl]

Thanks for the updates Hurakan, just wondering where you got the image of the South Pacific Activity with both 10F and Pat on it?

[HURAKAN]

:?: Thanks for the updates Hurakan, just wondering where you got the image of the South Pacific Activity with both 10F and Pat on it?

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

[HURAKAN]

The end is near

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0823 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA] CAT 1 LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 162.9W
AT 110600 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE FURTHER. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE, DECREASING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

LLCC COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.0. CI LOWERED,
BREAKING CONSTRAINTS, TO FIT RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. CYCLONE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND
COOLER SST REGION. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST ALONG
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.5S 163.8W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 24.0S 166.8W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.5S 168.4W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 26.5S 169.7W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT.

[HURAKAN]

Gone

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 162.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 162.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.4S 165.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.3S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.9S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 163.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WESTER-
LIES HAVE COMPLETELY SHEARED THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 14P CONTINUES TO BUILD BUT IS QUICKLY BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST AS WELL. DVORAK FIXES HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THE ESTIMATES, WITH 55 KNOTS, AS IMAGERY STILL INDICATES THE LLCC
IS WELL ORGANIZED. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING OBSERVED.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING UNFAVORABLE. DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS TC 14P QUICKLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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