AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S 81.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151537Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD 15- TO 20-KNOT LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
