CPAC: INVEST 90C

[HURAKAN]

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INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010021618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP902010
CP, 90, 2010021618, , BEST, 0, 35N, 1662W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 90, 2010021700, , BEST, 0, 37N, 1664W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

1000 PM HST TUE FEB 16 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms associated with a surface low is more than 1300 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, and has been nearly stationary for the past six hours. Slow development of this feature is possible over the next two days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday evening.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/0852 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.6S 162.0W AT
170600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION. SYSTEM IS
SLIGHTLY ORGANISED WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM LOW-MID LEVEL
[850-500HPA].
TD LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS IT. POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

400 AM HST WED FEB 17 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms associated with a surface low is more than 1300 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, and has moved slowly east over the past six hours. Slow development of this feature is possible over the next two days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Friday morning.

[CrazyC83]

1992 redux happening here (with Ekeka and Hali)?

[HURAKAN]

CP, 90, 2010021718, , BEST, 0, 30N, 1648W, 25, 1004, DB

Latest

[Derek Ortt]

much different steering pattern though this time. More of a NNE track is likely

I also think the center is going to consolidate farther SE. Close to about 1N and 161W

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

1000 AM HST WED FEB 17 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms about 1300 miles south of Honolulu is associated with a low pressure area straddling the equator. This area of disturbed weather has remained stationary for several days and is expected to linger there for awhile. Though tropical cyclone development is more likely to occur south of the equator in the southern hemisphere, there is slight chance of formation north of the equator.

However, Tropical storm formation is not expected in the central north Pacific over the next 48 hours.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/2308 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 5.3S 162.2W AT
171800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST
12 HOURS WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM LOW-MID LEVEL [850-500HPA].
THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE. THE OUTFLOW IS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD LIES
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A 10 KNOT SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWESTWARDS BY THE A
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOP
IT. POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/0849 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 5.3S 162.2W AT
180600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS NOT
INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO
BEEN PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM
LOW-MID LEVEL [850-500HPA]. THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS
STAGE. THE OUTFLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE BUT IS
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A 10 KNOT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SOUTHWESTWARDS BY THE A NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO AN
AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOP
IT. POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Chacor]

Those advisories are from Fiji on the southern hemisphere part of this convectional system, and not related to 90C; they don't belong here.

90C is in the northern hemisphere, and is in the warning area of the USA Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 190747
TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST THU FEB 18 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1435 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA STRADDLING THE EQUATOR. THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS TRAVELING EAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 AM HST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

FOSTER