SIO: OVERLAND DEPRESSION EX-HUBERT (13R/18S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Yeah 45-50kts seems like a good call, I'd imagine 35kts is too low as well judging from its current presentation.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Getting closer and seems to be getting somewhat stronger as well, the eastern quad is looking pretty good right now and the deeper convection is wrapping round nicely.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HUBERT (18S)
55kts.
WTIO30 FMEE 101840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HUBERT)
2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 48.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 070
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 21.4S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 21.5S/46.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/12 06 UTC: 22.4S/44.4E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0-; CI=4.0-.
HUBERT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROCHES MALAGASY EASTERN COAST !
SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT LESS THAN 30 KM OF MANANJARY CITY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOW AN IMPROVING CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE THAN 1O AROUND LLCC.
1608Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE FEATURES ON 91 GHZ CHANNEL WITH
IMPROVING
ORGANISATION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MW IMAGERY FROM AQUA AND TRMM.
ON THIS BASIS, FT IS UPGRADED TO 4.0- FOR THIS ADVISORY (DVORAK
CONSTRAINT AT +0.5 IN 6 HOURS FOR FT BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION
FOR A SMALL SYSTEM)
MSLP REMAINS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE (SET TO 1013 HPA).
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS NEAR MANANJARY AS SYSTEM
IS
CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTSOUTHWEST. AFTER LANDFALL
RAPID
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAINS OF MALAGASY=
WTIO30 FMEE 101840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HUBERT)
2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 48.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 070
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 21.4S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 21.5S/46.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/12 06 UTC: 22.4S/44.4E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0-; CI=4.0-.
HUBERT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROCHES MALAGASY EASTERN COAST !
SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT LESS THAN 30 KM OF MANANJARY CITY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOW AN IMPROVING CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE THAN 1O AROUND LLCC.
1608Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE FEATURES ON 91 GHZ CHANNEL WITH
IMPROVING
ORGANISATION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MW IMAGERY FROM AQUA AND TRMM.
ON THIS BASIS, FT IS UPGRADED TO 4.0- FOR THIS ADVISORY (DVORAK
CONSTRAINT AT +0.5 IN 6 HOURS FOR FT BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION
FOR A SMALL SYSTEM)
MSLP REMAINS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE (SET TO 1013 HPA).
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS NEAR MANANJARY AS SYSTEM
IS
CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTSOUTHWEST. AFTER LANDFALL
RAPID
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAINS OF MALAGASY=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 276
WTIO30 FMEE 110041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 13 (EX-HUBERT)
2.A POSITION 2010/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 48.2E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 075 SE: 090 SO: 075 NO: 055
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 020 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 21.3S/46.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 21.9S/45.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ACCORDING SATELLITE IMAGERY (METEOSAT7, NOAA 18 AND 19 OF 2151Z AND
2238Z
), HUBERT HAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND 21Z NEAR MANANJARY AT THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STATUS AFTER RESUMED A WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE LAST
HOURS
.
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS. THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED
TO
REMAIN OVERLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE. ON LATE
FRIDAY, AVAILABLE 12Z NWP MODELS MAKE A REMNANT LOW MOVED BACK OVER
WATER
OFF THE MALAGASY SO
UTHWESTERN COAST (TULEAR AREA). IF IT HAPPENS, POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE POOR DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 110041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 13 (EX-HUBERT)
2.A POSITION 2010/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 48.2E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 075 SE: 090 SO: 075 NO: 055
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 020 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 21.3S/46.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 21.9S/45.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ACCORDING SATELLITE IMAGERY (METEOSAT7, NOAA 18 AND 19 OF 2151Z AND
2238Z
), HUBERT HAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND 21Z NEAR MANANJARY AT THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STATUS AFTER RESUMED A WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE LAST
HOURS
.
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS. THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED
TO
REMAIN OVERLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE. ON LATE
FRIDAY, AVAILABLE 12Z NWP MODELS MAKE A REMNANT LOW MOVED BACK OVER
WATER
OFF THE MALAGASY SO
UTHWESTERN COAST (TULEAR AREA). IF IT HAPPENS, POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE POOR DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.=
NNNN
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