AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 163.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPOTTY AND LOOSELY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FIRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PREDOMINATELY MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 162314Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE REFLECTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OR INVERTED TROUGH. A 170759Z SSMIS 91H
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE BEST LOW LEVEL TURNING HAPPENS TO BE
OCCURRING OVER KOSRAE (PTSA). AT 170350Z PTSA WAS REPORTING
SUSTAINED 20 KNOT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES GUSTING TO 33 KNOTS. SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE WAS ALSO RECORDED AT 1007 MB, WHICH REFLECTS A 02 MB
FALL FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL AND THE
MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FAIRLY WEAK AND UNORGANIZED, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
a possible early season developement for us in Guam to watch.
