SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#221 Postby Tom8 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am

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#222 Postby KWT » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:22 am

Looks like its close to landfall, as Crazy has said 75kts appears to be a good bit too low. Either way strongest winds will probably be in the Sw qaudrant where the convection is really rather impressive still.

Looks to me like a decent 2 on the SS scale.
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#223 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:51 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Townsville to St Lawrence and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Moranbah are requested to USE
the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 3:47am EST on Sunday the 21st of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Townsville to St Lawrence and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Moranbah.

The Cyclone WARNING from St Lawrence to Yeppoon has been CANCELLED.

At 3:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
45 kilometres southeast of Bowen and
115 kilometres northwest of Mackay and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

At 4:00 am EST the cyclone is estimated to be
51 kilometres east northeast of Collinsville and
29 kilometres west of Proserpine.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului crossed the coast near Airlie Beach at 1.30am. The
centre of Ului is currently moving inland towards Collinsville. The cyclone is
expected to weaken as it moves further inland this morning.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 195 km/hr near are expected to continue affecting
the coastal and island communities between Ayr and Seaforth for the next hour or
two.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Townsville and St Lawrence over the
next few hours, and extending to adjacent inland parts during the morning.

Winds will gradually ease throughout during the afternoon.

TIDES between Bowen and Mackay are currently near the highest tide of the year
with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the very destructive winds continue over the next few
hours.

Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds
may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions
of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Townsville to St Lawrence and inland to Hughenden, including
Charters Towers and Moranbah should have completed preparations and remain in
secure shelter.
.Boats and outside property should now be secured.
.For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
.For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 3:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.3 degrees South 148.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 21 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#224 Postby Tom8 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 2:07 pm

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaki ... 5843295274
TROPICAL Cyclone Ului has crossed the Queensland coast at Airlie Beach after smashing through the Whitsunday Islands with winds of around 200km/h.

Widespread blackouts have been reported across the region, with some as far south as Gladstone,

video
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/03/20/2851517.htm
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/video.aspx?v ... 865f283e47
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#225 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 3:06 pm

Image

Landfall
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#226 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 3:34 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:56am EST on Sunday the 21st of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Ayr to Sarina.

At 5:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
45 kilometres south southwest of Bowen and
135 kilometres northwest of Mackay and
moving west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

At 6:00 am EST the cyclone is estimated to be
15 kilometres north northwest of Collinsville and
82 kilometres west of Proserpine.

The centre Tropical Cyclone Ului is currently just west of Collinsville, and
continuing to move further inland. The cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken
later this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 155 km/hr are expected to continue affecting the
coastal and island communities between Bowen and Seaforth for the next hour or
so.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Ayr and Sarina and the adjacent
inland for the next few hours, then gradually ease during the afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People in the path of the cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure
shelter while the destructive winds continue over the next few hours.

Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds
may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions
of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Ayr to Sarina and adjacent inland areas including Charters Towers
and Moranbah should have completed preparations and remain in secure shelter.
.Boats and outside property should now be secured.
.For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
.For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 5:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.4 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 979 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am EST Sunday 21 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


Image
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#227 Postby Tom8 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 4:21 pm

About 60,000 homes are without power, with the SES having received 600 calls for assistance.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensl ... -qn1j.html
Last edited by Tom8 on Sat Mar 20, 2010 4:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#228 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 4:28 pm

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.1S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.3S 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 147.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 20P HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA AT 1700Z IN
THE VICINITY OF BOWEN, AUSTRALIA. OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS BET-
WEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTEN-
SITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ULUI INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA, WITH CONT-
INUED WEAKENING, AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TOOK PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH
A PEAK NEAR 95 KNOTS OBSERVED AT 1240Z ON HAMILTON ISLAND AS TC 20P
TRACKED OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, ULUI QUICKLY BEGAN TO WEAKEN AGAIN
AS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO MOVE OVER LAND. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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#229 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 4:40 pm

Based on all the data, looks like its pre-landfall peak was 95 kt, then weakened to about 85 kt for mainland landfall.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#230 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:10 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:34am EST on Sunday the 21st of March 2010

The Cyclone WARNING from Ayr to Bowen, including adjacent inland areas has been
cancelled.

At 8:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului, was estimated to be overland
120 kilometres west southwest of Bowen and
60 kilometres west of Collinsville and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului is located west of Collinsville, and continuing to move
further inland. The cyclone has weakened rapidly, and is now below cyclone
strength.

DAMAGING winds are no longer expected.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

.For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
.For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]
.Report all power outages to Ergon Energy on 132 296

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului at 8:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.6 degrees South 147.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


Image
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#231 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:11 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#232 Postby Tom8 » Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:40 am

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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#233 Postby Tom8 » Sun Mar 21, 2010 6:27 pm

yachts washed ashore at Shute Harbour by Cyclone Ului

Image

Image
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#234 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 21, 2010 8:49 pm

Very impressive
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#235 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:05 am

I Think ULUI cat 1 over Hamilton Island landfall:
140 - 202 Km/h
975 hpa

ora___press_____wind_________gust

12:00 985 hPa - SSE144.5 km/h / 177.8 km/h
12:10 983 hPa - SE142.6 km/h / 183.3 km/h
12:27 980 hPa - SE138.9 km/h / 179.6 km/h
12:30 _?_ hpa - SE144.5 km/h / 201.9 km/h
12:41 976 hPa - SE172.2 km/h / 194.5 km/h
12:42 978 hPa - SE163.0 km/h / 194.5 km/h
12:43 979 hPa - ESE142.6 km/h /168.5 km/h
12:45 978 hPa - ESE164.8 km/h /192.6 km/h
12:54 976 hPa - SE 137.0 km/h /168.5 km/h
12:57 975 hPa - SE161.1 km/h / 188.9 km/h
01:00 977 hPa - SE155.6 km/h / 188.9 km/h
01:04 977 hPa - ESE131.5 km/h / 164.8 km/h

Image
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

#236 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:27 am

Based on the obs from Hamilton Island it was a either a high end cat 3 or a low end cat 4 at landfall. The sustained wind of 93kts would be a cat 4 but the highest gust there was only 109kts which is a little lower than you would expect for a 93kt sustained wind.
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#237 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 9:38 am

That 93 kt was 1-min sustained though. Also given the pressures, I would put it at 95 kt at that point (pressure 964mb), weakening to 85 kt (970mb) for mainland landfall.
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#238 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 22, 2010 9:39 am

Satellite images can be deceiving because it didn't look that intense at landfall. A learning experience.
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Re:

#239 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That 93 kt was 1-min sustained though. Also given the pressures, I would put it at 95 kt at that point (pressure 964mb), weakening to 85 kt (970mb) for mainland landfall.


I was wondering if this was the case but the BoM site says it is a ten minute average. The extra readings on there were just due to high gusts etc.
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