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GOC: EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (22P) - Final Advisory
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Wednesday 31 March 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Nhulunbuy to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 3:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be 170 kilometres west
northwest of Alyangula and 250 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy, and was moving
south at 5 kilometres per hour.
Ex-cyclone Paul has weakened into a deep tropical low over Arnhem Land and is
expected to move slowly southeast today. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts today.
The low is expected to move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday
where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday if
the low redevelops into a tropical cyclone.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 134.9 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... south at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Wednesday 31 March.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Wednesday 31 March 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Nhulunbuy to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 3:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be 170 kilometres west
northwest of Alyangula and 250 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy, and was moving
south at 5 kilometres per hour.
Ex-cyclone Paul has weakened into a deep tropical low over Arnhem Land and is
expected to move slowly southeast today. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts today.
The low is expected to move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday
where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday if
the low redevelops into a tropical cyclone.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 134.9 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... south at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Wednesday 31 March.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1945 UTC 30/03/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 134.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 13.9S 135.2E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 31/1800: 14.2S 136.0E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 01/0600: 14.8S 136.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 01/1800: 15.2S 136.9E: 150 [280]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 02/0600: 15.3S 136.4E: 200 [365]: 045 [085]: 989
+72: 02/1800: 15.4S 135.9E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has weakened into a tropical low, and is expected to gradually move
towards the southeast across the Arnhem Land. Heavy rainfall is expected to
continue over eastern parts of the Top End and adjacent areas with upslope
effects enhancing rainfall in some areas and favourable atmospheric conditions
persisting for another 12-24 hours.
By late Wednesday a passing short wave trough is forecast to steer the low
eastwards towards Gulf waters. The trough will increase shear, notably in the
850-500hPa layer, with the ridge still well defined to the south of the system
at 850hPa but eroded at 500hPa. The shear is expected to slow redevelopment once
the system gets over the warm Gulf waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1945 UTC 30/03/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 134.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 13.9S 135.2E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 31/1800: 14.2S 136.0E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 01/0600: 14.8S 136.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 01/1800: 15.2S 136.9E: 150 [280]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 02/0600: 15.3S 136.4E: 200 [365]: 045 [085]: 989
+72: 02/1800: 15.4S 135.9E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has weakened into a tropical low, and is expected to gradually move
towards the southeast across the Arnhem Land. Heavy rainfall is expected to
continue over eastern parts of the Top End and adjacent areas with upslope
effects enhancing rainfall in some areas and favourable atmospheric conditions
persisting for another 12-24 hours.
By late Wednesday a passing short wave trough is forecast to steer the low
eastwards towards Gulf waters. The trough will increase shear, notably in the
850-500hPa layer, with the ridge still well defined to the south of the system
at 850hPa but eroded at 500hPa. The shear is expected to slow redevelopment once
the system gets over the warm Gulf waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 31 March 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 9:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 90 kilometres
west southwest of Alyangula and 55 kilometres northeast of Port Roper, moving
east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.
Ex-cyclone Paul is currently over land close to Numbulwar. It is moving east
southeast and is expected to move into the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
during the early hours of Thursday. It is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone during Thursday but there is a possibility that it could
redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Friday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops. Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are
expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal parts of the Arnhem District.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 14.3 degrees South 135.7 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 01 April.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 31 March 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 9:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 90 kilometres
west southwest of Alyangula and 55 kilometres northeast of Port Roper, moving
east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.
Ex-cyclone Paul is currently over land close to Numbulwar. It is moving east
southeast and is expected to move into the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
during the early hours of Thursday. It is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone during Thursday but there is a possibility that it could
redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Friday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops. Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are
expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal parts of the Arnhem District.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 14.3 degrees South 135.7 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 01 April.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Looks like it will get back out to the gulf again however it is still going to be tight, for example if it moves too much to the SSE/SE it will never get a shot out in the gulf....
Equally if it ends up moving more ESE, then it will get further out to sea and have more time to possibly re-organise itself again.
Equally if it ends up moving more ESE, then it will get further out to sea and have more time to possibly re-organise itself again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:15 am CST Thursday 1 April 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 3:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 50 kilometres
east southeast of Numbulwar and 75 kilometres south southwest of Alyangula,
moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
and is expected to continue moving east southeast towards the coast. The system
is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday but there is
a possibility that it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops. Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are
expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal parts of the eastern Arnhem District.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 14.5 degrees South 136.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 01 April.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:15 am CST Thursday 1 April 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.
At 3:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 50 kilometres
east southeast of Numbulwar and 75 kilometres south southwest of Alyangula,
moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
and is expected to continue moving east southeast towards the coast. The system
is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday but there is
a possibility that it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Friday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops. Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are
expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal parts of the eastern Arnhem District.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 14.5 degrees South 136.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 01 April.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1937 UTC 31/03/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 136.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0600: 14.9S 136.5E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/1800: 15.3S 136.8E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 02/0600: 15.8S 137.0E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+48: 02/1800: 16.0S 136.5E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 03/0600: 15.5S 135.8E: 170 [315]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 03/1800: 14.9S 135.0E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has moved over Gulf of Carpentaria waters during recent hours. Shear
has continued to increase over the system and deep convection is confined to
areas south of an increasingly disorganised LLCC. The heavy rainfall to the
south has helped maintain a locally tight pressure gradient to the south,
contributing to strong winds in south western coastal parts of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.
The consensus of model guidance forecasts further southeast movement of the
lower level remnants over the SW Gulf. Vertical shear may decrease a little in
the 24-48 hour period however it does not completely subside and given the
structural disruption occurring in the low to mid levels it would take some time
for the system to redevelop even if shear decreases. The window for
redevelopment to tropical cyclone intensity is therefore narrow.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1937 UTC 31/03/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 136.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0600: 14.9S 136.5E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/1800: 15.3S 136.8E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 02/0600: 15.8S 137.0E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+48: 02/1800: 16.0S 136.5E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 03/0600: 15.5S 135.8E: 170 [315]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 03/1800: 14.9S 135.0E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has moved over Gulf of Carpentaria waters during recent hours. Shear
has continued to increase over the system and deep convection is confined to
areas south of an increasingly disorganised LLCC. The heavy rainfall to the
south has helped maintain a locally tight pressure gradient to the south,
contributing to strong winds in south western coastal parts of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.
The consensus of model guidance forecasts further southeast movement of the
lower level remnants over the SW Gulf. Vertical shear may decrease a little in
the 24-48 hour period however it does not completely subside and given the
structural disruption occurring in the low to mid levels it would take some time
for the system to redevelop even if shear decreases. The window for
redevelopment to tropical cyclone intensity is therefore narrow.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:00 am CST Thursday 1 April 2010
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the
NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, has been cancelled.
At 8:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 130 kilometres
east southeast of Numbulwar and 110 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula,
moving east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
and is expected to move south towards the coast during Thursday. The system is
no longer expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the
Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District.
No further advices will be issued for this system.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:00 am CST Thursday 1 April 2010
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the
NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, has been cancelled.
At 8:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be about 130 kilometres
east southeast of Numbulwar and 110 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula,
moving east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria
and is expected to move south towards the coast during Thursday. The system is
no longer expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the
Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall
in the Roper-McArthur District.
No further advices will be issued for this system.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0120 UTC 01/04/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 2300 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 136.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [115 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1100: 15.4S 137.2E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/2300: 15.8S 136.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 02/1100: 16.1S 136.4E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 02/2300: 16.3S 135.9E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 03/1100: 15.9S 135.4E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1000
+72: 03/2300: 15.4S 134.9E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has moved over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria this morning. A
poorly defined LLCC is evident in visible animated satellite imagery.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the system, with deep
convection and heavy rainfall displaced well to the south. The locally tight
pressure gradient to the south of the system is causing strong winds over the
far southwestern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The consensus of model guidance indicates southerly movement of the LLCC back
over land during Friday. Although shear may decrease a little during this
period, the vertical disorganisation of the circulation is expected to limit
further intensification before landfall. During the weekend, the remnant
circulation is forecast to track northwest back across the Top End as a
low-level ridge pushes the trough northwards.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0120 UTC 01/04/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 2300 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 136.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [115 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1100: 15.4S 137.2E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/2300: 15.8S 136.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 02/1100: 16.1S 136.4E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 02/2300: 16.3S 135.9E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 03/1100: 15.9S 135.4E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1000
+72: 03/2300: 15.4S 134.9E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Paul has moved over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria this morning. A
poorly defined LLCC is evident in visible animated satellite imagery.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the system, with deep
convection and heavy rainfall displaced well to the south. The locally tight
pressure gradient to the south of the system is causing strong winds over the
far southwestern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The consensus of model guidance indicates southerly movement of the LLCC back
over land during Friday. Although shear may decrease a little during this
period, the vertical disorganisation of the circulation is expected to limit
further intensification before landfall. During the weekend, the remnant
circulation is forecast to track northwest back across the Top End as a
low-level ridge pushes the trough northwards.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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