SPO: Tropical Depression 15F (95P)

[wyq614]

there's scarce convection but gale to its south side. Fiji gives it low to moderate chance for development.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 31/2308 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S 170.7E AT
312030UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

LLCC REMAINS EXPOSED WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA LEVEL.
DEPRESSION LIES TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A JET STREAM LIES
OVER THE LLCC AT 250HPA LEVEL.
DEPRESSION LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT SLOWLY
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARDS.


POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS LOW, AND MODERATE FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 01/0907 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD15F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.4S 171.9E AT
010600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

LLCC REMAINS EXPOSED WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA
LEVEL. TD15F LIES TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A 60 KNOT JET
STREAM LIES OVER THE LLCC AT 250HPA LEVEL.
TD15F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT SLOWLY
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[KWT]

Wow 60kts of shear is an utter killer, even at such high levels thats not going to be even slightly condusive for development I'd have thought!