Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 05/04/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Robyn
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 91.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/1800: 16.6S 91.4E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 979
+24: 06/0600: 16.6S 90.8E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 983
+36: 06/1800: 16.6S 90.1E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 07/0600: 16.7S 89.1E: 160 [295]: 040 [075]: 993
+60: 07/1800: 16.7S 87.8E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 996
+72: 08/0600: 16.8S 85.9E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Dvorak: The 0030 UTC MTSAT EIR image showed a ragged eye. E no 5.0, E adj -0.5
with DT of 4.5. This feature subsequently weakened. Recent visible imagery
showed tight banding with between 1.2 and 1.3 wrap giving DTs of 4.0.
MET was 4.5 based on developing trend and PAT was also 4.5. So FT/CI set to 4.5.
NW shear is expected to increase late Monday and is likely to adversely affect
the circulation so weakening is expected from late Monday onwards. UW-CIMMS at
0600 UTC indicated NW shear of about 15 knots. [At 0000 UTC, NW shear of about 9
knots].
Motion should remain slow with a general southward track as a mid-level trough
passes to the south overnight. From Tuesday a westerly track is expected as a
mid-level ridge develops in the wake of the trough. The extent of the westerly
track is dependent upon weakening/shearing processes.
The cyclone is likely to remain over open waters and does not pose a risk to
island or coastal communities.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
