BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[KWT]

Should be steadily weakening overland now and it does seem somewhat discoupled as well, however its slow speed certainly seems to be dumping lots of rain...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

NRL ... back to 60 knots

[KWT]

Gotta be honest I don't think it really looks like a 60kt system though the deep convection looks pretty impressive, looks like the center may just be slightly offshore.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.1N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.4N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.1N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.8N 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.2N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6N 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 80.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 201730Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF
AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SLOW FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH, ROUNDS
THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS, AND TURNS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
STEERING RIDGE. LAND INTERACTION WILL DISSIPATE THE TC 01B BY TAU
36. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND CONTINUE
ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A
(TWO) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

BOB 01/2010/28 Dated: 21.05.2010

Time of issue: 0730 hours IST



Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over Andhra Pradesh coast: Cyclone Warning.



The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 near Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:



Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

21-05-2010/0530


16.0/81.0


75-85 gusting to 95

21-05-2010/1130


16.5/81.0


65-75 gusting to 85

21.05.2010/1730


17.5/82.0


55-65 gusting to 75

22-05-2010/0530


18.5/84.0


50-60 gusting to 70

22-05-2010/1730


19.5/86.0


45-55 gusting to 65

23-05-2010/0530


21.0/88.0


50-60 gusting to 70

23-5-2010/1730


22.0/90.0


55-65 gusting to 75

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.

Gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Damage to thatched huts, breaking of the tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation.

Forecast for Orissa: Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal & south Orissa and isolated heavy over remaining parts of Orissa during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa during the same period.pFishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.

[CrazyC83]

I haven't seen much in surface obs wind-wise, but the pressure seems to be around 988mb right now. That would support an intensity around 45 kt given the land interaction and location.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1N 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5N 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.8N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST INDIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
SYSTEM'S RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RADAR VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE FROM VISAKHAPATNAM. (DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND
THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE
WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 48, ITS REMNANTS WILL EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAY OF BENGAL, INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH, NEAR CHITTAGONG. THE TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO)
WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

BOB 01/2010/31 Dated: 21.05.2010

Time of issue: 2030 hours IST

Sub: The Depression weakened into a well marked low pressure area.

The depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved further north-northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north coastal Andhra pradesh and adjoining Telangana at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.

Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours and Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal. on 24th May 2010. The system is therefore under constant watch.

This is the last bulletin for this system.

[Hurricanehink]

The remnants of Laila reached the Bay of Bengal, and the JTWC has it up on the STWO as a poor.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 01B) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 19.0N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TC
01B HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A
231955Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH
INDICATES A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A NARROW
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT MODERATE VWS AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.