ATL: INVEST 94L - MODELS

[petit_bois]

Looks like models suggest fish?

[ROCK]

yep...fish it is ....if it survives...

[Aquawind]

Bermuda is watching..

[Bocadude85]

Looks like models suggest fish?

Bermuda may need to keep an eye on it if it develops

[cycloneye]

I dont see the text of the BAMS so here it is.

TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1454 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100625 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 57.8W 19.6N 60.2W 21.1N 62.0W 22.6N 63.2W
BAMD 17.8N 57.8W 19.7N 58.7W 21.7N 59.5W 23.6N 60.5W
BAMM 17.8N 57.8W 19.3N 59.5W 20.9N 60.9W 22.5N 62.0W
LBAR 17.8N 57.8W 19.5N 59.1W 21.0N 60.3W 22.3N 61.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100627 1200 100628 1200 100629 1200 100630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 64.4W 26.5N 65.6W 29.3N 65.5W 32.7N 63.9W
BAMD 25.1N 61.6W 28.1N 62.8W 31.0N 62.8W 33.4N 60.5W
BAMM 23.9N 63.1W 26.7N 64.7W 29.7N 64.9W 32.8N 63.0W
LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.4N 62.9W 27.0N 63.0W 28.3N 64.3W
SHIP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 53.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[vacanechaser]

Looks like models suggest fish?

true.. but lets remember that that is the bamms models.. which is run off the gfs... the gfs is still showing the trough digging in and turning 93L in the gulf too... so the u.s. models mostly follow.. but if that trough is not as strong, or washes out, then i think it is possible that 94L could make it further west.. still early though... just something to think about.. i would not call it a fish just yet... still to early...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Hugo1989]

the system at high levels north of the Antilles not push the system towards the west?

[wzrgirl1]

Looks as if this baby has fish written all over it.

[gatorcane]

Looks as if this baby has fish written all over it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is a pretty good chance of that, assuming it does not impact Bermuda, however, I don't think we will even get a named system out of this.

[Bad_Hurricane]

I know that's not 94L but this African wave look impressive!

[HurricaneStriker]

I know that's not 94L but this African wave look impressive!

Wait, are you sure that''s a real image? That's crazy!

[bvigal]

If they aren't going to run num models on 94L (last run 25/12z), why not just cancel it?
AL, 94, 2010062518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 585W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 190N, 591W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062606, , BEST, 0, 197N, 600W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010062612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 611W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

Wait, are you sure that''s a real image? That's crazy!

Real - Link : http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[artist]

Wait, are you sure that''s a real image? That's crazy!

Real - Link : http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

do we have any way of knowing what that is actually doing there on the continent? Might give us a taste of what is to come as it comes off.

[HURAKAN]

699
WHXX01 KWBC 270512
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0512 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100627 0000 100627 1200 100628 0000 100628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 60.4W 18.4N 61.5W 19.5N 62.3W 20.6N 63.3W
BAMD 17.3N 60.4W 19.3N 60.7W 21.5N 61.3W 23.5N 62.3W
BAMM 17.3N 60.4W 18.7N 61.0W 20.3N 61.7W 21.8N 62.4W
LBAR 17.3N 60.4W 18.6N 60.9W 20.0N 61.7W 21.6N 62.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100629 0000 100630 0000 100701 0000 100702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 64.3W 23.9N 66.6W 25.9N 69.3W 29.9N 70.9W
BAMD 25.5N 63.6W 29.9N 65.9W 35.4N 65.0W 42.5N 55.0W
BAMM 23.4N 63.4W 26.3N 65.3W 29.5N 66.7W 34.0N 65.9W
LBAR 23.1N 63.9W 25.4N 66.1W 27.4N 68.8W 30.8N 68.2W
SHIP 37KTS 44KTS 48KTS 46KTS
DSHP 37KTS 44KTS 48KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 60.8W DIRM12 = 218DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 59.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[artist]

[floridasun78]

i see low but not were model run at that look like ull