ATL : INVEST 95L - MODELS

#41 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 10:50 am

218
WHXX01 KWBC 031205
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SAT JUL 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100703 1200 100704 0000 100704 1200 100705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 87.6W 27.7N 89.3W 28.5N 90.9W 29.5N 92.2W
BAMD 27.4N 87.6W 26.7N 89.2W 26.4N 90.7W 26.5N 92.2W
BAMM 27.4N 87.6W 27.3N 89.2W 27.6N 90.5W 28.1N 91.7W
LBAR 27.4N 87.6W 27.0N 89.4W 27.0N 91.3W 27.3N 92.8W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100705 1200 100706 1200 100707 1200 100708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 93.2W 32.9N 94.6W 34.5N 97.1W 35.7N 99.4W
BAMD 26.7N 93.6W 26.9N 96.2W 26.7N 98.9W 26.3N 101.7W
BAMM 28.7N 92.6W 29.7N 94.6W 30.8N 97.6W 32.0N 100.3W
LBAR 28.0N 94.0W 29.5N 95.5W 31.2N 97.1W 32.8N 96.9W
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 85.1W DIRM12 = 238DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 84.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#42 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:11 am

Both the 12Z NAM and GFS bring feature into SE LA.

#43 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:25 am

GFS 144 Hours South of the TX Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

Weatherfreak000 · #44 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:27 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:GFS 144 Hours South of the TX Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

1007 MBs? This thing has to be developed based on the GFS Model. Maybe we really can see Bonnie from this? Heading west again!

#45 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:29 am

GFS is different than the other models. Looks like it weakens 95L and develops something different.

#46 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:37 am

New version of the GFS has very little.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... el_l.shtml

#47 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:04 pm

680
WHXX01 KWBC 031810
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1810 UTC SAT JUL 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100703 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100703 1800 100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 87.6W 27.9N 89.2W 28.9N 90.2W 29.9N 91.2W
BAMD 27.4N 87.6W 26.8N 89.0W 26.7N 90.3W 26.9N 91.5W
BAMM 27.4N 87.6W 27.4N 89.1W 27.9N 90.2W 28.5N 91.1W
LBAR 27.4N 87.6W 27.0N 89.1W 27.1N 90.6W 27.4N 92.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100705 1800 100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.0N 91.9W 33.4N 93.2W 35.0N 95.6W 36.3N 98.4W
BAMD 27.3N 92.6W 28.2N 94.8W 29.1N 97.3W 29.4N 100.5W
BAMM 29.1N 91.9W 30.7N 93.7W 32.2N 96.4W 33.2N 99.0W
LBAR 28.0N 93.1W 29.1N 95.2W 30.7N 97.3W 32.8N 97.7W
SHIP 34KTS 34KTS 38KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 28.2N LONM12 = 86.3W DIRM12 = 240DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 84.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:07 pm

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL952010  07/03/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    29    31    32    34    33    34    35    38    37    36
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    29    31    29    28    27    27    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    28    29    29    27    27    27    27    27    27    27    27

SHEAR (KT)        21    20    34    28    20    22    21    16    10     3     4     3    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2    -4     1     1     0    -2     3     0     1    -2    -1    -3
SHEAR DIR          9     5    10    21    26    39    38    39    87   292   331    52   191
SST (C)         30.1  30.1  30.2  30.3  30.4  30.7  29.7  27.9  26.8  25.8  25.2  24.6  23.6
POT. INT. (KT)   170   170   170   170   169   170   162   134   121   111   107   103    96
ADJ. POT. INT.   146   147   147   148   149   156   136   112   102    94    91    89    84
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C)       9    11     8     7     9     7    10     7     9     6     9     4     6
700-500 MB RH     57    53    53    54    54    50    54    55    53    53    48    46    53
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     6     6     7     7     5     5     3     4     4     9     8    10
850 MB ENV VOR   -84   -87   -93   -94   -63   -67   -10   -25     7   -24   -27   -56   -48
200 MB DIV         0    -7    -4     1    23     5    38    27    21     8    20    17    16
LAND (KM)        251   203   178   132    77   -14   -89  -222  -283  -392  -500  -624  -570
LAT (DEG N)     27.4  27.5  27.5  28.0  28.4  29.3  30.6  31.8  32.9  34.0  35.2  36.4  37.8
LONG(DEG W)     87.6  88.4  89.2  89.7  90.1  90.7  92.0  91.9  90.7  89.5  87.7  85.4  82.8
STM SPEED (KT)     6     7     6     6     5     7     7     7     7     8    10    12    12
HEAT CONTENT      46    44    42    53    43     2    32     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 10      CX,CY:  -7/ -5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  536  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  33.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   6.  13.  20.  24.  27.  28.  28.  28.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   4.   5.   7.   8.   6.   3.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.   0.  -1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.   8.   9.  10.  13.  12.  11.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST     07/03/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  24.6 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   2.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 122.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  23.2 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  45.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    16% is   1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    10% is   1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST     07/03/10  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST     07/03/2010  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

#49 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 03, 2010 7:37 pm

374
WHXX01 KWBC 040027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100704 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 0000 100704 1200 100705 0000 100705 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 88.4W 28.4N 90.1W 29.5N 91.5W 30.7N 92.9W
BAMD 27.6N 88.4W 27.3N 89.9W 27.4N 91.4W 27.7N 92.8W
BAMM 27.6N 88.4W 27.9N 89.8W 28.5N 91.0W 29.2N 92.0W
LBAR 27.6N 88.4W 27.7N 89.8W 28.1N 91.1W 28.5N 92.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 0000 100707 0000 100708 0000 100709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.9N 93.9W 33.4N 95.7W 33.5N 98.7W 33.4N 102.9W
BAMD 28.1N 94.3W 29.0N 97.2W 29.5N 100.5W 29.4N 104.2W
BAMM 30.1N 93.1W 31.7N 95.3W 32.5N 98.4W 32.8N 101.9W
LBAR 29.3N 92.8W 31.0N 94.5W 33.3N 95.6W 34.6N 95.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 34KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 88.4W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.8N LONM12 = 87.0W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.8N LONM24 = 85.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#50 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Jul 04, 2010 2:38 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0625 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100704 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 89.6W 28.1N 91.4W 29.2N 92.9W 30.5N 94.3W
BAMD 27.2N 89.6W 27.1N 91.1W 27.4N 92.5W 27.8N 93.9W
BAMM 27.2N 89.6W 27.7N 91.1W 28.4N 92.5W 29.2N 93.8W
LBAR 27.2N 89.6W 27.3N 90.9W 27.8N 91.9W 28.2N 92.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 0600 100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.3N 95.3W 32.3N 97.3W 32.7N 100.8W 32.8N 104.5W
BAMD 28.3N 95.2W 29.2N 97.8W 29.8N 101.3W 29.6N 105.4W
BAMM 30.0N 94.9W 31.2N 97.3W 32.0N 100.8W 32.4N 104.2W
LBAR 28.9N 93.6W 30.9N 95.6W 33.3N 96.3W 35.2N 95.5W
SHIP 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS 35KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 89.6W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 27.6N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.2N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#51 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:40 am

Mon Jul 5 02:34:32 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 050623

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0623 UTC MON JUL 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100705 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.0N 90.9W 29.1N 92.4W 29.9N 93.8W 30.8N 95.2W
BAMD 28.0N 90.9W 28.2N 92.3W 28.6N 93.5W 29.0N 94.8W
BAMM 28.0N 90.9W 28.6N 92.3W 29.3N 93.6W 30.0N 94.9W
LBAR 28.0N 90.9W 28.7N 91.4W 29.5N 92.1W 30.5N 92.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600 100710 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.3N 96.6W 31.7N 99.6W 31.3N 103.1W 31.5N 106.6W
BAMD 29.5N 96.2W 30.5N 99.4W 31.2N 102.2W 31.6N 104.7W
BAMM 30.6N 96.3W 31.7N 99.2W 32.1N 101.9W 32.5N 104.3W
LBAR 31.8N 93.8W 34.7N 94.7W 37.9N 92.6W 39.9N 86.3W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.0N LONCUR = 90.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 27.3N LONM24 = 89.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 60NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

ATL : INVEST 95L - MODELS

Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - MODELS

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