WPac: 95W INVEST, South China Sea

[Chacor]

Third INVEST in the region within a few days.

[dexterlabio]

I knew it, that's another INVEST.

[Typhoon10]

Is it rare to see a Invest so southern in the South China Sea? Does it mean it has a lesser chance to develop into a TS and where would it go?

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Now THIS is more the WPAC I remember!

Good questions, Typhoon 10. I'm enjoying reading your questions because I learn a lot, too, from the answers. From what I've seen, they usually seem to go poleward if they are in the location where this invest is...but I'm a newbie to tracking, too, so I'd like to hear what some more seasoned folks have to say. I hope you get to see your first typhoon, but for your sake, I hope it's not a dangerous one!

[dexterlabio]

By experience to all the storms hitting our country, invest forming somewhere in the South China Sea tends to move northwards or northeast at this time of the year when the southwest monsoon is active. This southwesterly wind system drives cyclones up north, so when a cyclone forms in the South China Sea, it goes northeastward or north (though there are some who went to the northwest), and when a cyclone forms in the Pacific, it goes northwestward. Still, there are some other factors affecting a storm's movement. High pressure areas (I believe this is somewhat related to subtropical ridge) can affect the track of a storm, thus when it is located north of the system, it keeps the storm away from tracking to the north.

I doubt this invest has high chances of developing. Strong shear may hamper its formation, and as what I've read earlier, the shear is greater than 30kts in the South China Sea.

[Chacor]

Is it rare to see a Invest so southern in the South China Sea?

No, disturbances at this latitude are fairly common.

Does it mean it has a lesser chance to develop into a TS and where would it go?

That doesn't depend on the latitude, only on the environmental conditions at any given time.

[KWT]

Yet another invest in the WPAC, finally the WPAC is firing up just as the N.hemispheric conditions start to get out of the static mode its been sorta stuck in the last month or so and thats allowing things to get going.

Got some way to go but you never know with this basin!

[Chacor]

Nice flareup on the south side, but really nothing much else is there.

[Chacor]

Didn't last. Gone from NRL.