WPAC: INVEST 97W
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ECM now doesn't develop this one any further than it is already at and the presentation isn't as good as it was yesterday either.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CONVERGENT NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE LOW BUT
IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MINAMI-DAITO ISLAND SUPPORT A WEAK 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SLP VALUES NEAR 1011 MB. A 172215Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTED A DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CONVERGENT NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE LOW BUT
IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MINAMI-DAITO ISLAND SUPPORT A WEAK 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SLP VALUES NEAR 1011 MB. A 172215Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTED A DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W (JMA: TD)
WTPN21 PGTW 191300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.2N 125.5E TO 34.8N 123.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.9N 125.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.5N
125.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, JAPAN RADAR DATA AND A 191036Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EARLIER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 190913Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED A 15-20 KNOT
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD, INTO THE YELLOW
SEA, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOL SST (24-26C) AFTER TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201300Z.//
NNNN
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Looking good right now, probably 30-35kts at the moment. At least the WPAC is finally acting a little bit more normal now, probably thanks to the MJO wave finally occuring and shifting the favourable/unfavourable zones a little bit.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
WTPN21 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191251 JUL 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 191300)
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 123.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ALMOST 24
HOURS, AND ONLY SMALL POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION PERSIST (TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC). DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE LLCC TRACKS
NORTH TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BASED ON A 200103Z ASCAT IMAGE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.//
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 30.9N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191251 JUL 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 191300)
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 123.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ALMOST 24
HOURS, AND ONLY SMALL POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION PERSIST (TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC). DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE LLCC TRACKS
NORTH TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BASED ON A 200103Z ASCAT IMAGE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.//
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 30.9N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
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System just rtan out of time but I'm willing to bet it was a TD (I know the JMA did upgrade, which I think was right given the now obvious LLC and the presentation.)
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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StormingB81
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