000
WTNT43 KNHC 232032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232343
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...CENTER OF BONNIE EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
27 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BONNIE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 232343
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...CENTER OF BONNIE EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
27 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BONNIE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...DISORGANIZED BONNIE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 83.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY...AND BONNIE
COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
ANY INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.4N 83.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 27.7N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.2N 88.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.4N 91.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 34.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...DISORGANIZED BONNIE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 83.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY...AND BONNIE
COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
ANY INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.4N 83.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 27.7N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.2N 88.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.4N 91.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 34.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240846
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...STILL A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND BONNIE COULD
REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT43 KNHC 240847
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.
BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 27.0N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 87.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 29.4N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 30.8N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.1N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
WTNT33 KNHC 240846
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...STILL A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND BONNIE COULD
REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT43 KNHC 240847
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.
BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 27.0N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 87.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 29.4N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 30.8N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.1N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139778
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
000
WTNT33 KNHC 241136
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
WTNT33 KNHC 241136
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139778
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.1N 88.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.1N 88.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139778
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES
Last advisory.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE OR NO WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW RAINBANDS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER
AND DISSIPATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 28.5N 87.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 25/0600Z 29.5N 89.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE OR NO WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW RAINBANDS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER
AND DISSIPATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 28.5N 87.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 25/0600Z 29.5N 89.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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