ATL : INVEST 99L : MODELS

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ATL : INVEST 99L : MODELS

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 25, 2010 12:29 pm

647
WHXX01 KWBC 251711
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1710 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 0000 100726 1200 100727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 97.6W 21.7N 98.9W 22.2N 100.4W 23.0N 101.9W
BAMD 21.0N 97.6W 21.0N 98.9W 20.8N 100.1W 20.9N 101.2W
BAMM 21.0N 97.6W 21.5N 98.9W 21.9N 100.2W 22.4N 101.4W
LBAR 21.0N 97.6W 21.2N 98.7W 22.0N 100.2W 22.8N 102.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1200 100728 1200 100729 1200 100730 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 103.5W 25.1N 106.4W 26.2N 109.2W 27.2N 111.9W
BAMD 21.1N 102.5W 22.0N 105.2W 22.9N 108.4W 23.7N 111.7W
BAMM 23.0N 102.8W 24.3N 105.5W 25.5N 108.2W 26.6N 111.1W
LBAR 23.8N 104.0W 26.1N 107.8W 29.0N 111.2W 32.0N 113.1W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS 59KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 97.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 97.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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HURAKAN
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:46 pm

937
WHXX01 KWBC 251812
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 0600 100726 1800 100727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 98.3W 21.7N 99.7W 22.3N 101.2W 22.9N 102.7W
BAMD 21.2N 98.3W 21.2N 99.5W 21.2N 100.6W 21.2N 101.9W
BAMM 21.2N 98.3W 21.6N 99.6W 21.9N 100.8W 22.2N 102.2W
LBAR 21.2N 98.3W 21.4N 99.3W 22.0N 101.0W 22.7N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1800 100728 1800 100729 1800 100730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 104.2W 24.5N 106.8W 25.6N 109.5W 26.6N 111.7W
BAMD 21.5N 103.2W 22.1N 106.0W 23.2N 109.2W 24.3N 112.2W
BAMM 22.8N 103.6W 23.9N 106.2W 25.1N 109.0W 26.1N 111.3W
LBAR 23.6N 105.2W 26.0N 109.4W 29.0N 113.0W 32.4N 114.3W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 97.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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#3 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:52 pm

The models suggest this one is burying itself deep into Mexico. Not going to be an invest for long!
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:57 pm

Image

Far inland
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#5 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 25, 2010 2:01 pm

Even a reformation east probably wouldn't do this system much good at all looking at what the models do with it!
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