ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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All depends on 92L's track, if it gets into the BoC then its going to have a real shot at developing but thats certainly not an easy call...
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Yeah that may well make a slight difference there Hurakan, it'll be interesting to see if there is much difference if it starts further north...certainly increases the odds of getting into the BoC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
GFS 18z does show a weak vort into S.Mexico:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif
On that track it'd have a decent chance of developing IMO...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif
On that track it'd have a decent chance of developing IMO...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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blazess556
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Re:
KWT wrote:GFS 18z does show a weak vort into S.Mexico:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif
On that track it'd have a decent chance of developing IMO...
yeah. if it took that track, id say it would have 36-48 hours over water.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS
According to these BAM plots, 92L will make it into the Pacific despite Mexico’s mountains! Unlikely IMHO.
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Yeah I think there is pretty much no chance of that happening don't worry!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS
12z Tropical Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 071308
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1308 UTC SAT AUG 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100807 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100807 1200 100808 0000 100808 1200 100809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 88.3W 18.0N 90.3W 18.9N 92.4W 19.7N 94.4W
BAMD 17.3N 88.3W 18.0N 90.3W 18.5N 92.2W 18.9N 94.3W
BAMM 17.3N 88.3W 18.3N 90.2W 19.0N 92.2W 19.8N 94.3W
LBAR 17.3N 88.3W 18.2N 90.5W 19.3N 92.7W 20.5N 94.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100809 1200 100810 1200 100811 1200 100812 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 96.6W 22.7N 100.8W 24.1N 105.0W 24.7N 110.3W
BAMD 19.3N 96.5W 20.0N 101.0W 20.4N 106.1W 20.4N 112.1W
BAMM 20.6N 96.4W 22.3N 100.7W 22.9N 106.0W 22.5N 113.8W
LBAR 21.5N 97.2W 24.4N 101.4W 26.1N 104.8W 26.5N 108.6W
SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 72KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 30KTS 27KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 83.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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