WPAC: Invest 93W

[StormingB81]

Like I talked about in the other thread 93w has popped up and I am guessing since there is no info on NRL yet just that it is an Invest it is just west of YAP.

[StormingB81]

Also I know this is 93W but on a map I just saw it has 94W to the NW of 93W I don't know it is an old map or not but we have have 2 new invests. Which I know ITOP said they were looking at 3 so all 3 maybe invests now.

[StormingB81]

I was wrong. This is WEST of PI. Wonder what this one might do...Coordinates are 10N 115E

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrfpr.png

percentages are pretty good for something if coditions become favorable

[dexterlabio]

Image




Some models support this.


Some models support this.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This one looks to have a little more outflow, plus looks to be in less shear in the SCS.

[supercane]

Relevant excerpts from the latest ITOP discussion:

ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/29 23:00
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/29 19:32
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Overall, there has been slightly better organization notable
over this period. A cloud feature is consolidating in the South
China Sea around 110E...ITOP24 has tracked to around 129E with
some sense of rotation evident...ITOP26 is trackable to 135E but
has not developed...ITOP25 has moved to around Guam
longitudes...evidence on Guam radar of rotation...925mb heights
have fallen 6 decameters in last 12 hours at Guam.

Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop -

EC vorticity Loop

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

The forecast suggested that there was little evidence of
development of the cloud clusters in the short term but favored
the EC scenario of development west of the Philippines in the
next few days. The GFS model preferred rapid development by
03/12Z around 20N 132E at the expense of the low in the South
China Sea (SCS) but has now locked into the SCS system as the
dominating feature.

<snip>

Longterm Outlook:
<snip>
Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run favors major
development in the South China Sea with ITOP 24 passing over the
Philippines as a wave and merging with the SCS low. All models
extend an elongated trough to the northeast with a low
developing 18N 134E around 03/12Z. Neither EC nor GFS indicate
any significant intensity and UK keeps trough-like.
<snip>

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Still a mess on vis (below) and no signs of organization on microwave (not shown).

[RobWESTPACWX]

My thoughts on the Invest today all, plus some other weather going on out here that was dropped in.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XN60sxKACf0[/youtube]


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 111E WEST SLOWLY.

[supercane]

No longer on NRL. Still on the JMA 12Z map as a 1006-mb low but no text in summary.

[supercane]

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 111E WEST SLOWLY.

[RobWESTPACWX]

That is odd, it is no longer on NRL but JTWC still has a poor on it, maybe they will drop it here soon.

[supercane]

I've never seen JTWC mention it. The significant weather advisories have been focusing on 92W, now near the Philippines, and have not mentioned the area near the South China Sea.

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 110E WEST 10 KT.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Opps, I confused 92 & 93 there

[supercane]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 111E ALMOST STATIONARY.