EPAC : INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010071722
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010100712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982010
EP, 98, 2010100612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1102W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1115W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2010100700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1128W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2010100706, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1141W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2010100712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1154W, 20, 1009, LO

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Where's the 11am?

[HURAKAN]

Where's the 11am?

Seems like they went for a picnic since the weather is ideal in Miami

[KWT]

There is some decent convection with this system, but given how poor these last few months have been in the EPAC I wouldn't expect too much from anything even if it did form.

[HURAKAN]

not very impressive

[KWT]

Yeah it does have quite alot of work to do, there is convection but looking at that Hurakan it looks rather shallow for now...

[cycloneye]

Where's the 11am?

Seems like they went for a picnic since the weather is ideal in Miami

Here it is.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Still at 20%, sounds about right to me based on whats out there, its got a long way to go if it is going to become anything...

[cycloneye]

Nothing promising to develop from this according to the SHIP intensity model.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 071839
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC THU OCT 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982010) 20101007 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101007  1800   101008  0600   101008  1800   101009  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N 116.2W    9.9N 118.7W    9.8N 121.3W    9.7N 124.3W
BAMD    10.0N 116.2W   10.1N 117.7W   10.2N 119.4W   10.3N 121.2W
BAMM    10.0N 116.2W    9.7N 118.4W    9.4N 120.5W    9.2N 122.8W
LBAR    10.0N 116.2W   10.2N 117.9W   10.7N 120.1W   11.3N 122.5W
SHIP        25KTS          23KTS          19KTS           0KTS
DSHP        25KTS          23KTS          19KTS           0KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101009  1800   101010  1800   101011  1800   101012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N 127.5W   10.1N 133.6W   10.6N 139.4W   11.5N 144.0W
BAMD    10.2N 123.0W   10.0N 126.3W   10.1N 129.0W   10.9N 131.7W
BAMM     9.0N 125.3W    8.8N 130.2W    8.9N 134.0W    9.8N 137.1W
LBAR    12.0N 125.0W   13.4N 129.7W   14.9N 132.4W   17.6N 131.9W
SHIP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR = 116.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 = 114.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 = 112.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[KWT]

Yeah they aren't exactly keen on developing this one are they, weaken it down to nothing pretty quickly.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE...ITCZ...CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANZIED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Why did they made this a invest?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ITCZ...
AND CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE DECREASED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cookie]

:blowup:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN