My thoughts on Jal today all. Really disorganized storm.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAY4OfkxD4w[/youtube]
BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: BOB: Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL
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Jal is badly sheared. IMD has downgraded to a cyclonic storm.
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘JAL’ MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENED INTO CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 7TH NOVEMBER 2010, OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT.12.50N AND LONG. 82.50E, ABOUT 250 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI AND 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE, 450 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA).
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES DISORGANISATION OF CONVECTION AND HENCE WEAKENING. THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. BROKEN TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN LAT. 9.50N/15.50E WEST OF LONG. 82.50E BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C TO -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND NELLORE AS A CYCLONIC STORM BY TODAY, THE 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 NIGHT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS INCREASING TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 290-310 C AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL 70-90 KJ/CM2.. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL IS (15×10-5S-1) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (10-20) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WHICH ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 190N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.THE CLOUD MASS IS SHEARED WESTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM.ALL THESE ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘JAL’ MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENED INTO CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 7TH NOVEMBER 2010, OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT.12.50N AND LONG. 82.50E, ABOUT 250 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI AND 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE, 450 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA).
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES DISORGANISATION OF CONVECTION AND HENCE WEAKENING. THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. BROKEN TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN LAT. 9.50N/15.50E WEST OF LONG. 82.50E BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C TO -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND NELLORE AS A CYCLONIC STORM BY TODAY, THE 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 NIGHT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS INCREASING TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 290-310 C AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL 70-90 KJ/CM2.. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL IS (15×10-5S-1) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (10-20) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WHICH ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 190N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.THE CLOUD MASS IS SHEARED WESTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM.ALL THESE ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL
Some recap on this storm. Was report of was death and one person seriously injured, with minor damage in Chennai.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoqVteFkHMI[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoqVteFkHMI[/youtube]
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Re: BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL
Probably November weak conditions kept it from getting too strong.
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