ATL : INVEST 90L

[KWT]

Yeah that would make sense djones, esp as that would account for why convection has started to beocme deeper again in the last 6hrs or so as lapse rates increase due to upper temps slowly cooling somewhat.

[cycloneye]

The latest image from NRL.

[AJC3]

Remember, too that the upper trough associated with the surface low still has about a day and half or so before it merges with the deep layer low cutting off over the Delmarva.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

An organized, vertically stacked low is still some time away.

[cycloneye]

From Joe Bastardi:

Our first development of the Atlantic Season is starting to get its act together and rogue storms lovers will get a classic look at how these "tweeners" transition to warm core over the next couple of days. This storm though will probably make it back to near 33 north and 75 west as a 40-60 kt system, with a visible warm core, but the further south track in relation to the NC coast means it will stay out at sea.. The major height fall center that is developing to the east of New England, and will drive the backdoor down the coast later in the week, will also turn this eastward away from the Southeast coast, though to be sure wind and wave will be rough in these areas later tomorrow through Thursday.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

AL, 90, 2010052318, , BEST, 0, 252N, 697W, 30, 1007, LO

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TAFB 72 hrs.

[AdamFirst]

Model consensus seems like 90L will stall off the Carolinas and then degenerate while moving back east...anyone got a reason for a possible east movement?

[KWT]

Convection still a little too sheared from the main circulation for my liking and I still think others have said its still got a while to go until it forms...

Still pretty interesting early system and I'm still suspecting the NHC may end up upgrading this some point next week...good model agreement at last as well now.

[wxman57]

Model consensus seems like 90L will stall off the Carolinas and then degenerate while moving back east...anyone got a reason for a possible east movement?

It moves east as the upper-level low/trof it's associated with kicks out to the east.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I finally regestered!

I think this Invest needs time to develop. The shear and dry air are taking thier toll on 90L right now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... Andrew, welcome to S2K!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Latest ... Andrew, welcome to S2K!

Thanks. My actual Name is Daniel, but i am obsessed with the book "storm chaser" and it featcher Hurricane Andrew so i decieded to put thst as my screen name. You can call me Daniel or Andrew, i don't care.



I spy 3 sytems of intrest.

[ROCK]

man, good to be out of hibernation. ...90L has been spitting out its LLC for a few days now. I still think it will get one to stick tonight or tomorrow. IMO, a nice hybrid will form out of this and get named. Just one of many this year I am afraid...

[ROCK]

No other areas of interest unless you mean the PAC area.....little early yet but you'll have something to look at by mid-June I suspect.

[Hurricane Andrew]

man, good to be out of hibernation. ...90L has been spitting out its LLC for a few days now. I still think it will get one to stick tonight or tomorrow. IMO, a nice hybrid will form out of this and get named. Just one of many this year I am afraid...

One of what. Hybrids?or named storms?

[marciacubed]

I am thankful this little old storm popped up this weekend. My daughter had an end of school party yesterday and the weather here in south Florida couldn't have been better. This is the last party I am giving so no more storms needed Lol!!! I am praying for a quiet season I hope everyone here a safe summer.

[cycloneye]

From 8:05 PM EDT Discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0004.shtml?

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND SUPPORTS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 24N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N68W 24N70W
21N70W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER INDICATE 8 FT TO
12 FT SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEEN
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE FORMATION OF A UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE CURRENT LOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LOW IS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT LOW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE UNIFIED MAP BETWEEN 24/0000 UTC AND
24/0600. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SECOND LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30N71W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN 55W AND 71W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
57W AND 62W.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I wish this thing would just develop already!

That is between 8PM and 2 AM.(EDT)

[JonathanBelles]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240024
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL
TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE NEXT
STATEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE