WTIO31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 62.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 62.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.2N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.0N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.9N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.9N 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.1N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.7N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.9N 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND A 010235Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE
EYE. WITH IMPROVED CERTAINTY IN POSITION, TC 03A HAS BEEN RELOCATED
WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND
INDICATES TC 03A HAS INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TC 03A
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, TC 03A SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AXIS AND MOVES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, UNTIL BY TAU 96, WHEN TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
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