ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[cycloneye]

HWRF gives some life support for 92L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Macrocane]

So the HWRF is to some degree in agreement with the CMC, they keep this system alive in the Caribbean, that's an interesting scenario, let's see what the Euro has on the 12z run though I think it won't be on board with the CMC and the HWRF.

[tolakram]

It's also important to note no other model shows what this CMC model is showing with 92L developing and heading into the GOM off the coast of Lousiana.

Wait, does the Canadian have it hitting New Orleans? I want to make sure and count the number of times it does as I expect this to be a record breaking year in that department.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BAMS

Still they give some chance down the road.

575
WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100614 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100614 1800 100615 0600 100615 1800 100616 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 40.9W 11.2N 43.8W 12.2N 46.8W 12.8N 49.8W
BAMD 10.4N 40.9W 11.6N 43.7W 12.7N 46.0W 13.8N 47.9W
BAMM 10.4N 40.9W 11.3N 43.8W 12.2N 46.6W 12.9N 49.3W
LBAR 10.4N 40.9W 11.7N 43.3W 13.3N 46.0W 14.5N 48.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100616 1800 100617 1800 100618 1800 100619 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 52.6W 14.5N 58.5W 15.7N 64.6W 16.4N 70.2W
BAMD 14.6N 49.4W 15.4N 52.1W 16.0N 55.1W 16.6N 57.9W
BAMM 13.5N 51.8W 13.9N 56.9W 14.2N 62.4W 14.3N 67.7W
LBAR 15.9N 50.7W 18.4N 54.1W 21.6N 56.3W 23.5N 57.6W
SHIP 36KTS 39KTS 42KTS 46KTS
DSHP 36KTS 39KTS 42KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 38.8W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 36.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL922010  06/14/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    30    32    34    36    37    39    40    42    44    46
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    30    32    34    36    37    39    40    42    44    46
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    26    27    28    30    30    30    30    31    33    35    38

SHEAR (KT)         9    12    10    11    13    17    20    22    14    18    16    16    15
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -4    -2    -1     0     0    -2     1     1     1    -1    -1    -3
SHEAR DIR        129   171   192   206   213   238   251   269   277   264   277   286   298
SST (C)         27.7  27.7  27.8  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.4  28.7  28.9  29.1  29.4  29.4  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   134   135   136   138   140   139   143   148   151   155   160   160   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   138   138   141   142   139   143   147   152   156   161   161   156
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     9    10    10    10    10    10    11    10    12
700-500 MB RH     68    67    65    60    59    58    54    58    57    59    58    62    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     8     7     6     7     6     6     5     5     4     4     3     3
850 MB ENV VOR     9     6    -2   -12   -21   -24   -25   -13    -1     0    20    34    47
200 MB DIV        71    84    40    11    13   -11    -2     2     0    -3     8   -12     4
LAND (KM)       1333  1233  1150  1089  1035   943   899   791   562   386   388   403   333
LAT (DEG N)     10.4  10.9  11.3  11.8  12.2  12.9  13.5  13.6  13.9  14.0  14.2  14.2  14.3
LONG(DEG W)     40.9  42.4  43.8  45.2  46.6  49.3  51.8  54.3  56.9  59.6  62.4  65.0  67.7
STM SPEED (KT)    14    15    14    14    14    13    12    12    13    13    13    13    13
HEAT CONTENT      21    25    38    47    54    56    65    73    94    87    84    61    63

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13      CX,CY: -10/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  511  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  51.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  12.  20.  25.  30.  34.  37.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   0.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  14.  15.  17.  19.  21.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010     INVEST 06/14/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  43.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 114.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.2 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  37.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    30% is   2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    18% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    12% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     7% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010     INVEST 06/14/10  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010     INVEST 06/14/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY


[alienstorm]

Shear not as bad as originally forecasted.

[KWT]

Nah its just the SHIPS haven't got a good grip on the shear thats out there more then likely, its quite obvious the shear levels are pretty high out there, going to need the jet streak to lift out pretty soon if its got any chance of not getting whacked by between 35-40kts...

[Ivanhater]

18z GFDL gives life throughout the entire run and much further left

WHXX04 KWBC 142322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.0 40.5 300./13.0
6 10.6 41.9 292./14.8
12 11.0 43.3 286./14.0
18 11.6 44.5 294./13.5
24 12.5 46.2 300./18.6
30 13.1 48.0 289./18.1
36 13.9 49.5 298./17.4
42 14.1 51.3 276./16.9
48 14.4 52.8 281./14.8
54 14.4 54.2 273./14.3
60 14.6 55.9 275./16.2
66 14.8 57.3 278./13.3
72 14.9 58.8 275./14.4
78 15.2 60.9 279./20.5
84 16.1 62.1 305./14.6
90 16.3 63.7 277./15.7
96 16.1 64.8 261./10.5
102 16.5 66.0 287./12.3
108 16.8 67.0 288./ 9.7
114 16.9 68.3 275./12.5
120 17.3 69.3 291./10.6
126 17.3 70.3 267./ 9.5

[cycloneye]

The animation of the 18z GFDL has a moderate tropical storm entering the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[shah8]

hwrf is much scarier in terms of track.

[cycloneye]

Yeah and over me too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

hwrf is much scarier in terms of track.

Hwrf keeps it alive throughout the forecast as well...tropical storm over Puerto Rico

[SEASON_CANCELED]

to be honest. i really didnt see this coming. Its early June. But I hear the SST's are way above 2005 levels

[cycloneye]

Below is the 18z package of models in terms of intensity. Only GFDL and HWRF go to Tropical Storm strengh.

[HouTXmetro]

BAM Suite are now the Northern outliers? lol

[gatorcane]

hwrf is much scarier in terms of track.

Track yes, but intensity-wise no. Models are in general agreement that it will be just another wave headed W through the Caribbean (northern).

[cycloneye]

BAM Suite are now the Northern outliers? lol

Those were the southern outliers 6 hours ago.Go figure.

[cycloneye]

Is the 00z NAM but it shows ample moisture for the NE Caribbean by next weekend.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian approaching Florida straits

[Ivanhater]

And long range Canadian puts it back in the Gulf