EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 220252
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT IMAGES AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E AQUA-1 MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS NEW DEEP CONVECTION FORMING JUST TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE EYE...WHICH APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT THE
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY BACKING OFF. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED PRIMARY
BAND RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE EYEWALL IS IN FACT REFORMING.
SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AS
WELL...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL FURTHER DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
AFTERWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES BY DAY 3...AS CELIA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND MOVES WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER CELIA IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.7N 103.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Back to Major! Celia is going to eat that ACE pie..

66% of the ACE pie so far! Of course, when you're competing against Blas and Agatha, the job is easy!!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO
FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN
EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000
UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0...
CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST
OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/7. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THEREFORE CONTINUE IT MAINLY WESTWARD TREK. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...BY DAY 4...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK MODELS AND ALSO BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
EXCLUDES THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRACK THAT APPEARS TO
BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W 105 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Given the presentation looks reasonable enough, should make major hurricane unless something unexpected happens before today is out.

[Aquawind]

Warming tops and looking kinda ragged compared to hours ago..

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 221441
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CDO THAT
HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES REVEAL AN EYE THAT IS STILL A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN T5.0 AND
T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THIS
MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE ABATING. THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING AND PREDICTS CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN
24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IN 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS THAT
ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE WEAKENING.

CELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN
CONSENSUS. THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF...WHICH WEAKENS
THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE
SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OF CELIA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 11.6N 105.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 11.7N 106.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 11.8N 108.6W 105 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 12.1N 110.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 12.5N 113.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 117.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[KWT]

NE eyewall still struggling to stay closed looking at that microwave imagery, doesn't look quite as good as it did earlier on but thats been the trend with Celia thus far.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[pepeavilenho]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222034
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CELIA HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A CDO TO A
BANDING PATTERN TODAY. OVERALL...THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO
HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SOLID. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
SIGNS AS TO WHY THE CYCLONE SHOULD NOT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN.
EASTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INHIBITING AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE
LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY..THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IT CONTINUES TO
SHOW CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

CELIA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/8 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCN CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE
HURRICANE IN THAT MODEL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 11.8N 106.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 11.9N 107.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 12.1N 109.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 12.4N 112.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 114.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 14.4N 118.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 122.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

ICU

[KWT]

It looks quite good there, though looking at the AVN it does look like the cloud tops have warmed a little bit recently...but the structure still looks great.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE RAIN BANDS
HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE
VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THAT 10-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR HAS REDEVELOPED AND IS INHIBITING THE VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBSEQUENT DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND REFLECTED IN THE MODELS IS NOT AS ROBUST AS
WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT STILL INDICATING
SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.

CELIA IS ON A WESTWARD HEADING AT 275/9 KT...WITHIN THE DEEP
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 11.9N 107.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 12.0N 108.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 12.3N 111.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 12.7N 113.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 13.3N 115.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 125.6W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

ATCF has it down to 75.

[Kingarabian]

ATCF has it down to 75.

Yeah it looks like a mess at this stage.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE MICROWAVE
IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SHOULD RELAX DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN TURN...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...AS
CELIA REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...I
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS.

CELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO...AND CELIA
SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THAT OCCURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THAT RESULTS
IN MORE DECELERATION OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE THAN
PREDICTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 GIVING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 11.9N 108.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 12.0N 109.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 12.3N 112.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 13.6N 116.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.8W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 15.8N 124.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010

WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD DEPICTED THE
EYE OF CELIA...IT IS NOW FINALLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE EYE WAS FIRST SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES AROUND
0700 UTC...THOUGH IT WAS QUITE RAGGED...AND SINCE THEN HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0/90 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
85 KT. IN ADDITION...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF CELIA IS MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED THIS MORNING.

CELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT
OR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS
MAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL TRACK
OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE WEAKENING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 12.2N 109.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 12.5N 111.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.9N 113.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 115.7W 95 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 15.5N 122.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Latest