EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

I wouldn't be all that shocked to see Darby get upto 85-95kts range given its small size and tight core.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  24 JUN 2010    Time :   144500 UTC
      Lat :   12:47:34 N     Lon :   98:40:02 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.3 / 973.5mb/ 72.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.3     4.3     3.5

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +3.5mb

 Center Temp : -71.5C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.5C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Eye popping out

[HurricaneRobert]

Any good pictures with Darby and Celia in the same scene?

[HURAKAN]

774
WHXX01 KMIA 241838
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC THU JUN 24 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DARBY (EP052010) 20100624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100624 1800 100625 0600 100625 1800 100626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 99.0W 13.4N 100.7W 13.8N 102.2W 14.1N 103.4W
BAMD 12.8N 99.0W 13.1N 100.6W 13.6N 102.1W 14.0N 103.7W
BAMM 12.8N 99.0W 13.2N 100.5W 13.5N 101.9W 13.8N 103.1W
LBAR 12.8N 99.0W 13.3N 100.5W 13.9N 102.1W 14.5N 103.9W
SHIP 70KTS 78KTS 86KTS 85KTS
DSHP 70KTS 78KTS 86KTS 85KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100626 1800 100627 1800 100628 1800 100629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 104.5W 14.5N 106.3W 15.0N 107.7W 14.6N 110.2W
BAMD 14.3N 105.0W 14.6N 107.9W 14.8N 111.0W 15.1N 114.9W
BAMM 13.9N 104.2W 13.7N 106.5W 13.4N 109.1W 12.9N 112.3W
LBAR 14.9N 105.5W 15.9N 108.8W 17.8N 112.0W 19.9N 115.3W
SHIP 82KTS 71KTS 60KTS 53KTS
DSHP 82KTS 71KTS 60KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 99.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 95.6W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

759
WTPZ45 KNHC 242031
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.

THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7. SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 99.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HurricaneBill]

Before Celia, the last June hurricane was Andres last year — but before that we hadn't had a June hurricane since 2000 with Carlotta. 2000 is also the last year we had two hurricanes by the end of June (Aletta had become a hurricane in May).

2000 had 17 named storms.

The last time two hurricanes have formed in the month of June was 1996, when Hurricanes Alma and Boris formed one after another in almost the same place. 1996 had 9 tropical storms, including an unnamed storm (One-E).

What I always found ironic about the 1996 season was despite the low activity, 4 hurricanes made landfall on Mexico. (Alma, Boris, Fausto, and Hernan)

[Chacor]

EP, 05, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 131N, 997W, 80, 978, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1010, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D,
EP, 05, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 131N, 997W, 80, 978, HU, 50, NEQ, 25, 25, 25, 25, 1010, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D,
EP, 05, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 131N, 997W, 80, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1010, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D,


Up to 80 knots.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

DARBY IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH A TINY EYE WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND BASED ON THESE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS. DARBY COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE
GRADUAL.

DARBY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND DARBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN CONSIDERABLY OR MEANDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE
HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR. THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES
INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET
OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KWT]

This will probably become the second major hurricane of the season, my word the EPAC has exploded this month...

[HURAKAN]

very small cyclone

[HURAKAN]

12z

EP, 05, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1009W, 95, 966, HU

[KWT]

Oh very close to being the 2nd major hurricane of the EPAC season, Its almost like the EPAC is thinking if its going to get shut down by the Atlantic its going to get as many strong systems in as it possibly can before that happens...I think 93L has effectivly ended the wave train into that region now though...

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[Ad Novoxium]

...DARBY BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

What. A. Start.

[KWT]

Wow so we have out second major hurricane of the season, that is indeed pretty crazy considering its non El nino...