ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Comanche]

[quote=
To make a statement like a 99% chance of non-development, not only are you going against the current thermodynamics, your also disregarding the NHC's opinion.


I'm sorry but I need to see some more evidence to your claims here. The information your providing is just "downcasting"[/quote]

He didn't say AT ALL, he said over the next 36 hours. Plus, NHC is 30% over the next 48 hours.

[x-y-no]

To make a statement like a 99% chance of non-development, not only are you going against the current thermodynamics, your also disregarding the NHC's opinion.


I'm sorry but I need to see some more evidence to your claims here. The information your providing is just "downcasting"

Ummmm ... his analysis actually isn't strictly contrary to NHC. They say 30% chance in the next 48 hours, he says 1% chance in the next 36 hours.

I'd give it a somewhat higher probability even in that shorter timeframe, but the fact is that South America does interfere with cyclogenesis in that area.

[MGC]

Shear over the W Carb needs to relax if 93L is going to pop. If it don't it will meet a fate like 92L did......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[Aric Dunn]

To make a statement like a 99% chance of non-development, not only are you going against the current thermodynamics, your also disregarding the NHC's opinion.


I'm sorry but I need to see some more evidence to your claims here. The information your providing is just "downcasting"

Ummmm ... his analysis actually isn't strictly contrary to NHC. They say 30% chance in the next 48 hours, he says 1% chance in the next 36 hours.

I'd give it a somewhat higher probability even in that shorter timeframe, but the fact is that South America does interfere with cyclogenesis in that area.

thats right. I was just making the statement that climatology tells us that in the eastern and central carribean there is nearly no development at any time of year in this area. thats all I did not put a percentage of development I leave that to the NHC I was simply interpreting the situation and where actual cyclogenesis should occur. But i guess my clarity of the percentage in the original post could be better

i actually happen to agree with the NHC with a 30% for the next couple days

[Weatherfreak000]

To make a statement like a 99% chance of non-development, not only are you going against the current thermodynamics, your also disregarding the NHC's opinion.


I'm sorry but I need to see some more evidence to your claims here. The information your providing is just "downcasting"

Ummmm ... his analysis actually isn't strictly contrary to NHC. They say 30% chance in the next 48 hours, he says 1% chance in the next 36 hours.

I'd give it a somewhat higher probability even in that shorter timeframe, but the fact is that South America does interfere with cyclogenesis in that area.

That information is flat out contradictory to the thermodynamic patterns we are currently seeing. Climatology is NOT a suitable basis in which you can base a reasonable argument against development. Latest satellite imagery suggests this system is having no trouble organizing...and besides that I am looking at the current trend. Invests forming farther east due to lower than average shear, and higher than average SST's. (92L certainly having no trouble arguably forming into a depression in an area that had a 0% chance of forming....climatologically that is)

We shall see. I understand Aric's point now. Sorry for the confusion.

[clfenwi]

I haven't taken the time to watch the presentation, but there was one at the AMS conference on "The tropical cyclogenesis 'hole' in the Caribbean"

There exists a distinct lack of tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea when compared to the tropical North Atlantic Ocean to the east, and to the western Caribbean Sea and eastern North Pacific Ocean to the west. While little research has specifically focussed on this phenomenon, some studies have commented on regional features that may influence this oddity, such as the Caribbean low-level jet (e.g., Amador 1998, Wang 2007 and Muñoz et al. 2008).

The present study addresses the reasons for the apparent genesis hole in the Caribbean by first assessing the mean summertime environment of the Caribbean, in particular the distribution of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, and potential vorticity gradient. Next, the role of transient disturbances will be investigated, including easterly waves and the MJO. Particular attention is paid to the track and intensity evolution of easterly waves as they enter, transit, and leave the Caribbean.

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a write-up available, just the video of the presentation.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 678W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[x-y-no]

That information is flat out contradictory to the thermodynamic patterns we are currently seeing. Climatology is NOT a suitable basis in which you can base a reasonable argument against development. Latest satellite imagery suggests this system is having no trouble organizing...and besides that I am looking at the current trend. Invests forming farther east due to lower than average shear, and higher than average SST's. (92L certainly having no trouble arguably forming into a depression in an area that had a 0% chance of forming....climatologically that is)

We shall see. I understand Aric's point now. Sorry for the confusion.

We shall indeed see.

I'd point out that there's nothing even remotely close to a surface circulation. There's a weak surface low at best. There's some decent convergence up near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, but very little down where most of the convection is located. In other words I don't agree that the current "thermodynamic pattern" is as favorable as you say.

Now by Wednesday, I expect the situation to be quite different.

[HURAKAN]

Shear in the northern Caribbean is 30 knots but it has been decreasing over the last 24 hours. There is convergence and divergence

[Aric Dunn]

To make a statement like a 99% chance of non-development, not only are you going against the current thermodynamics, your also disregarding the NHC's opinion.


I'm sorry but I need to see some more evidence to your claims here. The information your providing is just "downcasting"

Ummmm ... his analysis actually isn't strictly contrary to NHC. They say 30% chance in the next 48 hours, he says 1% chance in the next 36 hours.

I'd give it a somewhat higher probability even in that shorter timeframe, but the fact is that South America does interfere with cyclogenesis in that area.

That information is flat out contradictory to the thermodynamic patterns we are currently seeing. Climatology is NOT a suitable basis in which you can base a reasonable argument against development. Latest satellite imagery suggests this system is having no trouble organizing...and besides that I am looking at the current trend. Invests forming farther east due to lower than average shear, and higher than average SST's. (92L certainly having no trouble arguably forming into a depression in an area that had a 0% chance of forming....climatologically that is)

We shall see. I understand Aric's point now. Sorry for the confusion.

I agree the Thermodynamic in the area are indeed favorable but the location in the carribean has other inhibiting factors that are not exactly related to the thermodynamics of cyclogenesis. The proximity the south america cause disruptions in the otherwise favorable low level flow (jet) the high terrain of south america not only disrupts this flow but has a tendency to be associated with more stable low level conditions. Also I agree 100% that climatology is not a basis for current conditions ( anything is possible) and cannot make a forecast strictly from climatology (which I have not). My analysis is based its current forward motion, organization, postion relative to SA, and many downs stream factors. I apologize for the confusion.

[Sanibel]

I downplayed this due to AVN presentation earlier. Hmm, now that I see the visible floater this could have signs of formation curvature.

The axis center is way down by South America over the offshore islands there IMO.


It will flare-up tonight if it has anything and if the TUTT border doesn't wipe it out like 92L.

[Stormcenter]

Just a reminder folks it's June and not August or September. I'm not saying nothing will develop only if does that it won't be as signifcant as some seem to think. JMHO

[Aric Dunn]

whats the link for the locations that systems have developed.. i believe if this does develop before 75w it will be the first time in history?

[Frank2]

Shear over the W Carb needs to relax if 93L is going to pop. If it don't it will meet a fate like 92L did......MGC

I agree with MGC (it ryhmes) - the TUTT is still a formidable feature ATTM...

[ROCK]

Well Stormcenter, if you take into account the latest model runs, there is nothing to be concerned about...all of them show something different or nothing at all...

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a reminder folks it's June and not August or September. I'm not saying nothing will develop only if does that it won't be as signifcant as some seem to think. JMHO

I don't think you can say this for sure, especially based upon how ripe the conditions suppose to be this year. This could be a year of "it shouldn't be happening, but it is"

[StormClouds63]

Just a guess, but I think this system doesn't go beyond tropical depression strength. Alex is still not ready to make his appearance just yet, IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Frank2]

...think we've successfully beaten back the "I see an eye!" assault - for the moment...

LOL