ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

Do I see a NW jog??? just kidding

[KWT]

LLC has tightened up and is now moving at a decent clip towards WNW/NW in the last 2hrs or so.

Weak convection flaring up on the eastern side but to be honest it still loks heavily sheared right now.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

this is the same area that hurricane alicia started off in aug. 1983....not saying it could happen again....like y'all say watch this one way to close to home..

[LaBreeze]

this is the same area that hurricane alicia started off in aug. 1983....not saying it could happen again....like y'all say watch this one way to close to home..

Never turn your back to the water.

[fogbreath]

Obviously, it's early in the ballgame, but isn't this invest headed in the general direction of the spill area?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

this is the same area that hurricane alicia started off in aug. 1983....not saying it could happen again....like y'all say watch this one way to close to home..

Never turn your back to the water.

so very true!!

[KWT]

Obviously, it's early in the ballgame, but isn't this invest headed in the general direction of the spill area?

Well it is heading in that general direction but hopefully it'll be weak anyway which will help limit the effects...but who knows really...could end drive some of the oil back into the Gulf.

[StormTracker]

The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 3:50pm:
Pressure: 1015.1mb
Winds: 18mph from the SSW
Gusts: 22mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/80.06f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m

1 hour later:
The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 4:50pm:
Pressure: 1014.7mb
Winds: 13mph from the SSW
Gusts: 18mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/79.7f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m
The pressure dropped slightly!

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... 3 days can be a long time

[HURAKAN]

The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 3:50pm:
Pressure: 1015.1mb
Winds: 18mph from the SSW
Gusts: 22mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/80.06f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m

1 hour later:
The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 4:50pm:
Pressure: 1014.7mb
Winds: 13mph from the SSW
Gusts: 18mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/79.7f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m
The pressure dropped slightly!

Not surprising that pressure is falling in the afternoon. It could be attributed to the normal daily cycle.

[rockyman]

Shear is decreasing rapidly:

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC keep it attached to the frontal boundary, in other words it ends up being an extra-tropical low rather then a tropical system.

[Jessie]

Obviously, it's early in the ballgame, but isn't this invest headed in the general direction of the spill area?

Well it is heading in that general direction but hopefully it'll be weak anyway which will help limit the effects...but who knows really...could end drive some of the oil back into the Gulf.

To me it looks like the models take it directly South of the spill and then turns the storm North to the New Orleans or Mississippi coast ---- Like it's scooping the oil up intentionally to make life harder than it already is in those areas.

[StormTracker]

The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 3:50pm:
Pressure: 1015.1mb
Winds: 18mph from the SSW
Gusts: 22mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/80.06f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m

1 hour later:
The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 4:50pm:
Pressure: 1014.7mb
Winds: 13mph from the SSW
Gusts: 18mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/79.7f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m
The pressure dropped slightly!

Not surprising that pressure is falling in the afternoon. It could be attributed to the normal daily cycle.

Yeah, you're probably right! I just checked the 3 other buoys & the drilling platform out there in the general vicinity of 95L from NOLA to Tampa, and they all have pretty similar readings pressure-wise!

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Here's a recent plot. Pressure about 1014mb. Not really a tropical low. Wind shear is too high for development. Should move ashore into the mid Gulf coast in about 48 hrs as just a rain maker.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise, and as such should not be used for any purpose

Certainly an interesting system. I think there is a chance we get at least TD2 out of this eventually.

Overall The level of activity doesn't bode well for the rest of the season...

[KWT]

I agree wxman57 its pretty much on the front right now anyway and the NHC/NOAA seem to think this one will end up a frontal low heading into the central Gulf...personally I think see this going inland before then.

The only thing that makes a little cuatious to dismiss it totally is this is a pretty classic evolution for the time of year for a system to develop, plus there is decent moisture about.