ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this is amazing. Well, time for another busy thread and speculation if Alex Part 2 comes to be.......

[Ptarmigan]

Well, back to hurricane shifts tomorrow. Canceled my fireworks watching for tonight as I now have an early day shift tomorrow. At least it looks like I won't get a call at 3:45am for the NHC upgrading 95L now. Could well have a TD in 24 hours in the NW Caribbean. I'm thinking NE Mexico to lower TX coast again. Alex part II.

That would be Bonnie. It would be funny if it was Bonnie and Clyde.

[Dean4Storms]

This one could very well be a TS by the time a Recon gets out there.

[HouTXmetro]

How confident are we that this will stay well south of Houston? I have people coming in from out of town next weekend for a birthday party and this would absolutely RUIN my plans.

[MGC]

I was thinking the same thing Dean.....TS for sure if they find a west wind.....MGC

[lebron23]

this is totally off topic(but relates to weather) but to de stress your minds and give you a laugh check this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWgZcpcKB5U

[MGC]

Check out the WV loop....96L is located directly under an upper ridge. Once it closes off it should spin up quickly unless it is close to land......MGC

[funster]

Wow. Four areas to watch. This could get confusing. Time to use the eek expression.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Ivanhater]

Quite a pressure drop

[cycloneye]

Moving slowly NW.

LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 050047.txt

[Ivanhater]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Moving NNW which makes sense with the low level flow currently

[Nederlander]

How confident are we that this will stay well south of Houston? I have people coming in from out of town next weekend for a birthday party and this would absolutely RUIN my plans.

Yeah I share your pain.. I am supposed to be leaving for Hawaii in a week...

[hurricaneCW]

There may be 4 threats but only 1 of them is probably going to develop. The tiny gulf disturbance doesn't have a chance. The Bahamas system has conditions that would argue against development. The next possible developer would be the one around the Leewards, that one may become a system over time. What an active start to July though? I can't imagine how crazy things are going to get once we enter August.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, just wow..again. Happy 4th everybody, fireworks in the sea, as well as the sky. Stay safe everybody and good luck. BTW I have a bad feeling about that system east of the Islands too.

[Nederlander]

Quite a pressure drop

4 mbs over 12 hours.. not sure where that buoy is in relation to 96L but it could just be 96L getting closer to the buoy..

[Dean4Storms]

Quite a pressure drop

Then Best track is off by at least 3mb!!

[KWT]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Moving NNW which makes sense with the low level flow currently

I never can quite bring myself to put any real trust into those center points until we have a center, that being said they did a decent job with Alex..

As you say a slow NW track does make a certain amount of sense for now though the ECM really does strengthen the upper high again in a decent way in about 48-72hrs timeframe, so a NW track with a bend to the W/WNW seems like a good call, once again just like with Alex.

Also that pressure drop sure seems its heavily to do with 96L.

[rockyman]

Quite a pressure drop

Then Best track is off by at least 3mb!!

That buoy is located at 19.874 N 85.059 W...so either the buoy's malfunctioning, or a center is forming much farther to the north.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[CrazyC83]

Looks like some fireworks for sure in the Atlantic!