WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[Typhoon10]

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 128.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
TIGHT CONVECTIVE WRAPPING AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WHILE ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CONTINUES TO INDUCE A STRONG
POLEWARD TUG. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5
IN CONSIDERATION OF THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THOUGH TC 03W
HAS JOGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
BY TAU 72, A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND
ENABLE THE STORM TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
NNNN

Experts, the 2 points in BOLD from JTWC forecast, what does that mean?

[KWT]

Shear will weaken the system usually because it causes the cloud tops to get disrupted. It'd certainly prevent this system from becoming too potent if that was the case.

[Chacor]

TAU 72 = 72 hour forecast point.
Longwave trough = a wave in westerly flow with large length (hence the name) and amplitude; it can affect weather patterns, as it is expected to in this case.
Wind shear = The rate of wind speed or direction change with distance. Vertical wind shear is the rate of change of the wind with respect to altitude. Horizontal wind shear is the rate of change on a horizontal plane. (from weather.com)

[P.K.]

JMA up to T4.0 at 12Z. This is a fair jump as they only had it at T3.0 at 06Z.

[Chacor]

I was just about to post that.

TCNA21 RJTD 121200
CCAA 12120 47644 CONSON(1002) 02143 11277 13244 240// 92815=

[KWT]

Yeah your right that is quite a jump up from 3.0...interesting because as Chacor said earlier I don't think the presentation has improved really, at least not to justify that jump.

[Typhoon10]

JMA up to T4.0 at 12Z. This is a fair jump as they only had it at T3.0 at 06Z.

Hehe, another question. JMA up to T4.0 at 12Z does that they predict it will be a Cat 4 Typhoon at some stage?

[Chacor]

No. Couple of points here:
1) The JMA does not use the Saffir-Simpson category scale. Instead, locally in Japan they use their own scale; internationally, all storms above 64 knots are simply "typhoons".
2) T4.0 is a Dvorak technique rating, used to estimate a storm's intensity based on satellite and microwave images of the storm. A T4.0 corresponds to 65 knots, or a typhoon. However, this is not always accurate, and other factors will come into play.

[Chacor]

JMA has upgraded to a 55 knot severe tropical storm.

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1002 CONSON (1002) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 14.3N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 15.9N 124.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 141200UTC 17.6N 120.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151200UTC 19.4N 116.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[oaba09]

Still moving west at the moment
*****************************


<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E127°40'(127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E120°10'(120.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[Chacor]

Interestingly, only calling for 5 kt of further strengthening in the next 24 hours but calls for more strengthening to a typhoon in the following 24 hours despite forecasted landfall.

[KWT]

Very strange forecast that one, I can't quite work that one out but there ya go. Does look like a typhoon making landfall is quite possible at this stage, lets hope it doesn't ramp up too much.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 121216

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON)

B. 12/1132Z

C. 14.2N

D. 127.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. DT IS 3.5 BASED ON .80 WRAP
ON LOG SPIRAL. AT TIMES THERE IS A VERY WEAK EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
PT AND MET ALSO 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0915Z 14.2N 128.5E SSMS
12/0932Z 14.1N 128.4E WIND
12/1020Z 14.2N 128.2E SSMS


BRANDON

JTWC still remains at 3.5. They already said that they raised the intensity slighly higher than 55kt (equiv. of 3.5) in consideration of the storm's small size.

[ManilaTC]

Here is the latest, 72kt???

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2010 Time : 123200 UTC
Lat : 14:20:40 N Lon : 127:49:09 E

(Roughly 14.3 N 127.8 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500z Advisory=60kts

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.2N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Current 5 day forecasts from most agencies take Conson pretty close to Hong Kong - I'll certainly have my cameras rolling if it comes near here!

Still in the realm of great uncertainty but I guess JMA forecast shear over the South China Sea (SCS) to ease off in next couple of days hence their forecast of 75kts in 72 hours time.

[Chacor]

Here is the latest, 72kt???

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2010 Time : 123200 UTC
Lat : 14:20:40 N Lon : 127:49:09 E

(Roughly 14.3 N 127.8 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

That is merely an automated application of the Dvorak technique mentioned earlier. A Dvorak T-number of T4.3 would suggest an estimated intensity of 72 kt, but clearly at the present moment, this is not the case.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see the raw figure is actually down at 3.6 though the weakening flag is off...backs up the idea that if anything the systems presentation isn't quite as good as it was before.

JWTC peaks it at 70kts, which seems reasonable though it is going to have to slightly sort itself back out again.

[cycloneye]

Typhoon Hunter, the JTWC track goes directly towards Hong Kong, but with time, it can change to the left or right of that city.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon Hunter, the JTWC track goes directly towards Hong Kong, but with time, it can change to the left or right of that city.

It sure does according to their warning 5. JMA about 60km to the west along with CWB too. All academic at the moment given it's 4 or 5 days out though.

Let's hope this passes over Luzon quickly and doesn't cause too much flooding. Conson is certainly going to capture my full attention this week!