WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 114.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 114.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.6N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.8N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.3N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.5N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 114.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

The JTWC is being conservative with the intensity, in my opinion it is 50 or 55 kt, even the JMA has it stronger.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.9N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.3N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.6N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 113.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201315Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AS IT IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH IS CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING MORE WESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS FROM
HONG KONG INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. TS 04W IS
TRACKING ALONG AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL
WEST OF HONG KONG AFTER TAU 24. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

20/2032 UTC 18.2N 113.6E T3.5/3.5 CHANTHU -- West Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Close-up

NRL - 55 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.3N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.5N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 112.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W
(CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

485
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 202126Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS A
FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE. INTENSITY HAS INCREASED BY 10
KNOTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS BASED ON PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND TRMM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVERALL, ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL
SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. WHILE NOT REFLECTING A CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE HAS EXTENDED FARTHER WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65
KNOTS BASED ON IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 04W THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.
B. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TS 04W IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TS CHANTHU
WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF HAINAN AND REACH LAND
WEST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 36, THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
TS CHANTHU IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATER (SST > 28) AND IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TS 04W MAY IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL TRACKER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD, BUT
ARE IN AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS DUE TO
PREVIOUS TRENDS.//

[Typhoon10]

Outer rainbands now hitting HK. Also HKO report sustained winds of 44kmh and Chanthu is still over 400KMH away!

[Typhoon10]

Now raised T3 here in HK with sustained winds of 62kph.

[KWT]

This one does like to stair step its way north-westwards, just on a northerly motion again but expected to bend back west!

[Chacor]

Is now 60 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

21/0832 UTC 19.3N 112.8E T3.5/3.5 CHANTHU -- West Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.0N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.1N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.2N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.7N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 112.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD, AND A 210609Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM HAS TRACKED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
THE SYSTEM. A 210228Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUGGEST THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

JMA holding at 60 kt. Doesn't quite have the typhoon look about it yet.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.3N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.5N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.5N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 112.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

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