ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[Nimbus]

Hope it gets inland soon before it gets named.

[cycloneye]

50%

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

[KWT]

A little surprised they've held back at 50%, it really is only the land interaction that is probably stopping them from going any higher then 50%.

[SoldMayor]

Hi,

This is my first post on this forum.
Btw i am from ''the Netherlands'' Europe.
My english is sometimes not so good...

But 98L is looking realy good.

[HURAKAN]

Welcome SoldMayor. Yes, it's looking really good.

[KWT]

Looking like a classic developing system now, I think we may well have 2 tropical systems in the next 12-18hrs...

[Thunder44]

I wish diverted the plane to this system, instead of 97L. This one looks much better organzied and the surface data is this region is often very sparse, to determine closed LLC and the max winds.

[americanre1]

Reminds me alot of Alex from earlier this year

[thetruesms]

I wish diverted the plane to this system, instead of 97L. This one looks much better organzied and the surface data is this region is often very sparse, to determine closed LLC and the max winds.

It certainly looks better because of 97L's shearing, but I think 97L has an edge on core organization, as 98L is still quite broad and needs to tighten up more.

98L is still in a race to get it all together before time runs out, because it certainly has all the ingredients

[Chacor]

Appears to have a very broad diameter, not unlike Alex really. Doesn't look like a typical Atlantic system, if I may say that.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 207N, 949W, 25, 1008, DB

[tailgater]

Pressure drops of 2 mb in the last 24hrs as it is moving away from this buoy. But it is running out of time and most of the attention will probably be on TD3.

Conditions at 42055 as of
(7:50 am CDT)
1250 GMT on 07/22/2010: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 10.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 12.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.2 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 108 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1010.1 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +1.1 mb ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.0 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.5 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 25.2 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 28.2 °C

[SouthFloridawx]

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Remember you can change the location and number of frames in that URL.

Hard to tell if there's a LLC or not.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it won't have time to do much

[CrazyC83]

It's got to hurry if it wants to become TD4 or Colin...

[tailgater]

I'm gonna say the precentage drops to 10 or below on the next advisory, because I don't see anything but east or SE winds this morning,

[HurrMark]

Looks like it will meet the same fate as TD 2 and Invest 95.

[Sanibel]

The west Atlantic flashed on favorable at the same time.

[srainhoutx]

Favorable MJO pulse will do that.