ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still moving strait west at 270 degrees.

[ConvergenceZone]

As always, if we want it to be a fish, we better hope for rapid development....the longer it remains weak, the more west it goes.

[thetruesms]

Yeah the eastern vortex was still part of 95L and is heading towards more unfavourable conditions as well so thats probably why the NHC haven't done anything with it.

Yup, too bad. I was almost rooting for the little guy to beat the odds and manage something before going away.

[Ikester]

Slighty OT, but has there every been a system classified as soon as it hit the water off the coast of Africa? Looking at some tracks, there are some that have come close to doing so and why?

[KWT]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still moving strait west at 270 degrees.

Yep though I really wouldn't pay any attention until we have an actual center present with this system considering its a large gyre, the center could form anywhere from 20-30W in theory, though I like the region near 25W right now.

Oh and for those that haven't seen it, the eCM has thrown a HUGE spanner in the works, both weak and heading towards the bahamas!

[wxman57]

Slighty OT, but has there every been a system classified as soon as it hit the water off the coast of Africa? Looking at some tracks, there are some that have come close to doing so and why?

Best track data may not indicate when advisories were first issued on a system. Tracks could have been extended eastward post-season (or post-storm) on many of them in that region.

Many systems emerge out into the Atlantic looking like full-blown tropical storms. Typically, the NHC will wait at least a few days to see if the system holds together before starting advisories.

[wxman57]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still moving strait west at 270 degrees.

Yep though I really wouldn't pay any attention until we have an actual center present with this system considering its a large gyre, the center could form anywhere from 20-30W in theory, though I like the region near 25W right now.

Oh and for those that haven't seen it, the eCM has thrown a HUGE spanner in the works, both weak and heading towards the bahamas!

Hurricanes blocked by ridges to the north typically aren't weak, though.

[KWT]

Yeah and thats why I don't understand the ECM and why its so weak throughout, the TUTT is weak on it from what I've heard, I'd be curious to see what it forecasts in terms of the relative humidity in case it takes in dry air but its an odd one!

As I said in the other thread, if this one strengthens to any great degree its going swimming...if it takes its sweet time it'll not feel the effects of the upper trough enough to lift it out and then its simply the luck of the draw.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still moving strait west at 270 degrees.

Yep though I really wouldn't pay any attention until we have an actual center present with this system considering its a large gyre, the center could form anywhere from 20-30W in theory, though I like the region near 25W right now.

Oh and for those that haven't seen it, the eCM has thrown a HUGE spanner in the works, both weak and heading towards the bahamas!

hehe.. Flag Flapping In the Wind ... lol

[Riptide]

95L continues to organize apparently. We will know if the intensity forecast from the euro was out to lunch very soon.

[KWT]

hehe.. Flag Flapping In the Wind ... lol

Haha I wouldn't say it was flapping yet, more like showing a slight ripple motion along one of the corners...now if more models join the ECM weak and west party, then that ripple can grow into a torrent of wind!

Slow organisation right now, nothing too rapid will happen with this one regardless of the eventual track, the development of this one looks quite steady in the next 4 days...unless the ECM is to be believed where it starts to weaken from 4 days onwards!

[Aric Dunn]

surface obs with the farther east showing that a small circ exists..

[KatDaddy]

Looks like 3 systems spinning. That is an amazing.

[cycloneye]

Aric, what is that in front of 95L?

[Vortex]

Thats interesting..for many runs gfs was indicating develoment of a weak low moving west towards the islands in advance of 95...

[KWT]

I wonder if thats why the ECM doesn't do much, it can't consolidate a proper center and so it limps along with a weak system that is forever competing with itself...hard to know without looking at the high resolution version of the Vort maps from ECM.

It does look amazing though for sure, when in doubt I just plump for the middle circulation and that looks the stronger despite the eastern one clearly being a closed low IMO.

Also, if that eastern system is a TD/TS then nothing ever will be, evidently got a closed low and its very convectivly active, heck its got decent banding even!

[Vortex]

I’ve watched these systems for 30+ years and I cannot remember seeing a trio like this….

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what is that in front of 95L?

well its just an area of convergence... from surface observations and satellite this a rough analysis of the flow at the surface. there is some good convergence and the surface flow is going right trough that area. the over all circulation is very broad with a couple small vorticies within it. sorry for the roughness of the image had to hand draw it ... lol but I think you get the idea..

[cycloneye]

I’ve watched these systems for 30+ years and I cannot remember seeing a trio like this….

That is the monsoon trough in action there.That is why it will be slow to develop as it has to get rid of it before development takes place.

[petit_bois]

looks like a possible big deep water fish... entertainment...