ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

It looks like its pretty much there now and developed to me, I think we see TD7 today.

Track is still rather uncertain and depends on what Daneille does and whether the weakness stays open or not.

Troughing down the east coast is still very stubborn to end so even if it got past I'd have thought recurve is still highly likely.

[WeatherGuesser]

Anybody think they'll pull the pin at 8AM?

[ColinDelia]

Anybody think they'll pull the pin at 8AM?

I think so

[ColinDelia]

[KWT]

Probably will upgrade this soon, so yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see they do esp given its quite close to the CV Islands.

[Thunder44]

It looks like its pretty much there now and developed to me, I think we see TD7 today.

Track is still rather uncertain and depends on what Daneille does and whether the weakness stays open or not.

Troughing down the east coast is still very stubborn to end so even if it got past I'd have thought recurve is still highly likely.

I think it will develop and probably wind up recurving too. I dont buy the trough of the SE coast that the 0z/24 GFS has at 7 to 10 days yet. But it looks like Danielle will hang around long enough in West-Central Atlantic to keep a huge weakness in the ridge. IMO, 96L would only be able track further west if it's weak or if Danielle recurved faster into North Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

The 72 Hour TAFB has the low moving due west.

[cycloneye]

90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KWT]

Well there ya go pretty much a certainty they upgrade it now, TD7 will probably come in the next few hours I'd imagine...

Track should take this WNW for the enxt 2-3 days and then bend back west till it finds the weakness left behind by Danielle, after that who knows what will happen, its not a certainty that it recurves into the weakness though I'd say the odds are pretty high.

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, maybe they don't upgrade at the 8AM TWO, maybe they'll wait 'til the 11AM Advisory.

[cycloneye]

Well, maybe they don't upgrade at the 8AM TWO, maybe they'll wait 'til the 11AM Advisory.

The big clue to know they will upgrade is when the word renumber is up at the ATCF site. That would occur between 8-9 am. And then NHC releases out the first advisory at 11 AM.

[punkyg]

Anybody have the latest sat image of 96L?

[cycloneye]

Anybody have the latest sat image of 96L?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its a TD. probably a TS

[Blown Away]

Crown Weather's take on 96L:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Invest 96-L In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely monitoring a strong tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This system has been designated Invest 96-L and I do think it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression 7 either sometime today or tonight. This system is currently tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph and it is expected to affect the southern Cape Verde Islands with strong winds and heavy rainfall over the next 24 hours or so.

I do think some of the outflow from Danielle will slow down the intensification process of this system; however, it seems quite plausible that it will attain hurricane strength late this week or this weekend. The track of this system over the next several days seems pretty clear cut as it is forecast to track generally west-northwest reaching somewhere around 21 North Latitude, 48 West Longitude by Sunday morning. After Sunday, the forecast track for Invest 96-L/Earl becomes more unclear as questions arise on whether this system will follow Danielle out into the open Atlantic or will it sneak underneath and continue tracking west-northwest. Most of the global model guidance is forecasting the out to sea scenario, although the latest GFS model and yesterday afternoon’s European model hinting at the idea of this sneaking underneath and then being pushed further west by a building ridge of high pressure.

I will be monitoring both scenario ideas as I am not sold on either scenario. With that said, there is more than enough time to monitor the progress of this system and I will keep you all updated.

[ColinDelia]

[ColinDelia]

yeah its a TD. probably a TS

It's "Early" either way

[KWT]

A small risk of the CV Islands getting some TS conditions if it really were to ramp up in the next 6-12hrs or so...

[cyclonic chronic]

theres a half-way decent looking wave behind this also. yee-haw!! been waitin all season to see if 2010 would live up to the hype. happy huntin boys!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-wv.html

[ROCK]

probably was a TD after splash down..without surface obs we can only use sats and estimate...looks good and ready to take off....