ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortex]

looks to be a large cyclone...

[Nimbus]

If Matthew really does stall out in the western Caribbean like Mitch did there is a lot of heat energy content available. Slow movers are the hardest to forecast so we are all clueless about track. Might take two troughs to get him to landfall. Currently there is an ULL to the north but the Caribbean is relatively low shear and plenty juicy with moisture.

[GCANE]

Core is warm at 1C but slightly displaced from the COC, about the right altitude though.

[GCANE]

Closest GOES Sounding at 15N 70W, 18Z showing high CAPE over 3800 and Lifted Index at -6.

Other LI's on the IR loop showing measurements down to -8.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... 507018.gif

[stormhunter7]

AP story from lunch time... ..."A recent National Science Foundation research mission into the system found the wave's circulation had "become better defined," with a wind gust of 48 mph reported on the island of St. Lucia, the NHC reported. The tropical wave was moving west at about 15 mph."

Sounds like GV flight today found better defined circulation?

[SoupBone]

No dry air to speak of in the Caribbean either....lots of moisture.

[Vortmax1]

The current vorticity doesn't look that strong to me.
Pretty weak actually.





Lower Convergence is out of line but Upper Divergence is better now.
This system is not rapidly coming together.
But it is on the development path from what I am seeing.

[fci]

This is the first system this season where I don't have a "warm and fuzzy" feeling about for us in South Florida and the Eastern Gulf.
Getting into Late September/Early October and we are very wary of developments south and southwest of us which is where 95L is supposed to get his act together.
I see long nights ahead watching this one...........

[cpdaman]

It appears reasonably likely that with a strong nina....and this season hatching storms very fast in the last two weeks....that a S FL threat is in the making over the next month.....when who knows...but i wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple.

good news is the VAST MAJORITY of majors come from the atlantic i.e SE /ESE/East

[Vortex]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

Yes they do.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI46L-12.html

[Vortex]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

Yes they do.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI46L-12.html

Thanks Luis

[Vortex]

NWS Miami is giving this more attention than they normally do.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THROUGH END OF THE WEEK...
...WETTER PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR LATE THIS WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE TWO SYSTEM WAS KEEPING A BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MIA RADAR WAS ALSO PICKING UP A
FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A INCREASE IN POPS FOR REST
OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING
TO A CHANCE OF STORMS BY END OF THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH EASTERLY WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THE WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE BE HIGHER THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa doesn't like to mention tropical weather too much far in advance. Im thinking 60% next TWO?

[cycloneye]

A gust of 38 mph was reported in Curacao.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCC.html

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Hato Airport, Curacao, Netherlands Antilles 
 
Conditions at  Sep 21, 2010 - 05:35 PM EDTSep 21, 2010 - 04:35 PM CDTSep 21, 2010 - 03:35 PM MDTSep 21, 2010 - 02:35 PM PDTSep 21, 2010 - 01:35 PM ADTSep 21, 2010 - 12:35 PM HDT
2010.09.21 2135 UTC 
Wind  from the NE (040 degrees) at 24 MPH (21 KT) gusting to 38 MPH (33 KT


[MGC]

50% seems a bit high to me....no spin at all in the clouds, just a westward motion to the entire mess.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

50% seems a bit high to me....no spin at all in the clouds, just a westward motion to the entire mess.....MGC

I disagree. 50% in the next 48 hours seems more than correct, if not a tiny bit on the low side. Comparing this system now to how it looked 48 hours ago, more than justifies the 50%. Moreover, it has great computer model support plus climatology, the central and western Caribbean is where you want to be for development at this time of the year. It's common for these systems to lose convection in the D-MIN. Tomorrow morning it will look even more organized.

[HURAKAN]

48 hours ago

[MWatkins]

Closest GOES Sounding at 15N 70W, 18Z showing high CAPE over 3800 and Lifted Index at -6.

Other LI's on the IR loop showing measurements down to -8.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... 507018.gif

That's some serious instability. The atmosphere is ripe for upward motion down there...I don't think the models are out to lunch on this one.

MW

[5KOVERLIBOR]

While many key ingredients appear to be in place for the development of a strong system in the CAR, what role will the continued anomalously-low vertical instability in the CAR play, if any?


By fivethousandoverlibor at 2010-09-21