ATL: PAULA - Models

[gatorcane]

Shear not that bad across the se gom and southern Florida as depicted by the gfs by day 4 (image below). Definitely a trend of less shear.....look what this model showed a couple of days ago to see what I mean.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM H48 NE of Honduras


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

H60


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[gatorcane]

The wildcard here is the upper low that dives into the southern plains by day 3. If it ends up diving farther south than expected it could veer the upper-level winds to the sw across the se gom.

[Vortex]

Shear not that bad across the se gom and southern Florida as depicted by the gfs by day 4 (image below). Definitely a trend of less shear.....look what this model showed a couple of days ago to see what I mean.

That's quite a change gator...

[Vortex]

00Z NAM loop...the track and forecasted synoptics would be concerning for those in SFL as it's a classic October track...traversing over the very warm waters of the NW carribean and then would likely turn NE near western cuba...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

H84 200mb not that bad shearwise over western cuba and more out of the SW...





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 500mb flow at 84 hours from the nam, south fl cannot be ruled out at this point. Note the upper level low diving into the gom. Winds from the nw Carib through Florida and the Bahamas are southwest.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Interesting that the 00z gfs builds in a ridge now to the ne of the system.....at 54 hours. Would induce nw motion in the nw Caribbean and prevent a sharp ne turn into central Cuba

[SFLcane]

Sorry about that cycloneye...

00z plots

[jinftl]

Amazing what just 6 hours can do to model runs...the latest models (6z) are out....and they show much more meandering (looping even) and much more land in the possible tracks of this system. Interesting because the talk earlier was about a pretty strong front clearing through florida by mid-late week...maybe the intensity or timing of that trough will impact this system.

Rule of thumb-if your area is in the vicinity of track solutions for model runs 120 hours out for a system that hasn't even developed a closed circulation yet...fear not, the next set of model runs will be totally different!!!

Latest model runs in this image (with prior set in image below posted by SFLcane):

Sorry about that cycloneye...

00z plots

http://i52.tinypic.com/14nmr14.png

Edited by CM to take out [img] tags

[ronjon]

Models really backing off development in the near term. They are also suggesting that 98L will meander down in the western caribbean for at least the next week. 00z CMC eventually pulls whatever is left of 98L into the GOM and toward the FL big bend with a deep trough coming down onto the GOM. Latest Euro takes a weak disturbance into Honduras. 06Z GFDL and HWRF don't develop 98L. I'd say the odds of this one devloping are diminishing rapidly.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.html

[AdamFirst]

Aside from half-baked model plots and land vicinity, what else would inhibit development? This still has all the time in the world to develop.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS 500mb charts suggest 98L will linger near Belize/Yucatan through 180 hours.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS H102 a little more bullish this run with low centered over Gulf of Honduras


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps also has low over Gulf of Honduras....Were starting to get more Global model support for this system...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[nick3232]

what are the chances it would go into wilma track and hit south florida?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

809
WHXX01 KWBC 101823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC SUN OCT 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101010 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101010  1800   101011  0600   101011  1800   101012  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  80.8W   14.1N  81.9W   14.7N  83.2W   15.5N  84.7W
BAMD    13.4N  80.8W   14.3N  81.8W   15.2N  83.0W   16.3N  84.5W
BAMM    13.4N  80.8W   14.3N  81.7W   15.4N  82.9W   16.4N  84.3W
LBAR    13.4N  80.8W   14.2N  81.4W   15.4N  82.4W   16.6N  83.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101012  1800   101013  1800   101014  1800   101015  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  86.2W   17.0N  88.4W   14.7N  90.6W   12.0N  93.8W
BAMD    17.4N  86.1W   19.8N  88.3W   22.0N  87.9W   25.1N  81.9W
BAMM    17.5N  85.6W   18.7N  87.7W   18.2N  88.8W   17.3N  89.7W
LBAR    17.8N  84.8W   20.9N  85.9W   24.1N  82.0W   28.2N  72.1W
SHIP        51KTS          62KTS          57KTS          46KTS
DSHP        51KTS          53KTS          31KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  80.8W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  80.7W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  80.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

what are the chances it would go into wilma track and hit south florida?

too early to say