ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ronjon]

Too early to speculate on the eventual track - the 00z HWRF and GFDL both have future Richard as a major hurricane or hurricane still tracking over water at the end of their 5 day runs. The scheduled cold front (and more importantly the continental high pressure system building over the SE US) will prevent 99L from moving too far north. The system is progged to drift north, then stall, then drift south, then either move west (per HWRF) or NW (per GFDL). Belieze or Yucatan look like likely landfall points initially but the SE US High is progressive as a trough digs over the lower Mississippi valley over this weekend. There could be a few surprises in the 5-7 day outlook if the system holds together after initial landfall.

[srainhoutx]

Microwave pass a couple of hours ago was rather impressive. It appears we may have a TD brewing IMO.

[HURAKAN]

looks healthy this morning

[xironman]

Visibles show all the low level clouds starting to converge, my guess is the plane finds a depression.

This just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. This is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

19/1145 UTC 16.8N 83.0W T1.0/1.0 99L

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MGC]

Looks to have improved its organization overnight....could possibly have a TC brewing. I think recon will be a go today....hope the GFDL is wrong but it was pretty right with Paula.....MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out this buoy, which is very near the "center." Pressures are not falling yet....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[srainhoutx]

It appears RECON will fly today.

[wxman57]

It appears RECON will fly today.

No sign of any recon data yet, srain. There's a training flight presently in the eastern Gulf near 26N/86W, but nothing from any plane heading to the Caribbean. I don't think 99L qualifies for TD upgrade yet, though.

[latitude_20]

Thought recon was supposed to depart almost an hour ago, but still no data. 99L is looking fairly impressive on visibile sat loops this morning.

[MGC]

Spinning like a top this morning....I'd be perplexed if recon don't fly soon.....MGC

[wxman57]

Recon is on the way now. They got a late start.

[drezee]

Recon is on the way now. They got a late start.

Oh yes, may be the last system of the season...for recon that is

[Sanibel]

I think they'll hold off because of poor organization between lower and upper, shear, and too much dry air into the bands.


Obviously on its way though once it works it out.

[CourierPR]

I think they'll hold off because of poor organization between lower and upper, shear, and too much dry air into the bands.


Obviously on its way though once it works it out.

AccuWeather describes conditions as extremely conducive for development with an absence of shear in the area of the system. Also, I think the organization has improved.

[Blown Away]

IMO, at this point the question will be how far N and E will 99L go before the high pushes 99L back S and W. If 99L makes a bigger loop offshore it may spend more time over water and become Richard.

[HURAKAN]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HAS NOT YET
COMPLETED ITS MISSION. ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED IN
ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[wxman57]

Plane is circling a weak center near 17.6N/83.6W. Winds 5-10 kts around it.