ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

This should be reclassified at 5. Not just on it's own merit though, but because TS watches should be issued for the NE Caribbean ASAP.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see a recurve either. WXMAN, I'll be sure to give you kudos if I"m wrong about this, but just like others, I just don't see a recurve out to sea, especially based on the fact that NONE of the models see it either.

[ColinDelia]

Upper level high moving west and expanding

200 mb streamlines. Now


200 mb streamlines. 6 hours ago

[HURAKAN]

not exposed anymore

[Bailey1777]

thats what i was seeing aric the next question is does it cruise all the way to mexico or does the tx coast come into play?

[Aric Dunn]

Upper level high moving west and expanding

200 mb streamlines. Now
[img]http://linkification.com/wx/2010/gaston/highnow.gif[/img
200 mb streamlines. 6 hours ago
[img]http://linkification.com/wx/2010/gaston/high6.gif[/img

which is why I said about another 12 hours... the models were forecasting this synoptic setup a few days ago the only issues was timing and placement of gaston. soon a more divergent environment aloft should set up and gaston should make a quick come back

[CDO62]

Will this system once again be called TD9/Gaston if it reforms?

[Florida1118]

thats what i was seeing arik the next question is does it cruise all the way to mexico or does the tx coast come into play?

Impossible to tell. As of now, I think The continent of N. America and Central America Are in play.

[Florida1118]

Will this system once again be called TD9/Gaston if it reforms?

Still the same low, so still Gaston.

[caneseddy]

Will this system once again be called TD9/Gaston if it reforms?

Yes

[dwsqos2]

I just saw the latest satellite image; I am not impressed. The 12Z gfs continues to dissipate Gaston in the short term. My forecast, no regeneration, remains the same.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneseddy]

thats what i was seeing arik the next question is does it cruise all the way to mexico or does the tx coast come into play?

Impossible to tell. As of now, I think The continent of N. America and Central America Are in play.

I am in favor of the north of islands track rather than Caribbean track...i just have a feeling this will not be a Central American storm but rather a Gulf threat but coming north of the islands

[Florida1118]

thats what i was seeing arik the next question is does it cruise all the way to mexico or does the tx coast come into play?

Impossible to tell. As of now, I think The continent of N. America and Central America Are in play.

I am in favor of the north of islands track rather than Caribbean track...i just have a feeling this will not be a Central American storm but rather a Gulf threat but coming north of the islands

IMO, It will clip the N islands and head on to N. PR. Then For some odd reason I feel it will Go to the Bahamas then stay just off shore/or graze the E. coast of Florida then Ram into SC. I dont know why, I dont have anything to support my thinking, Just a gut feeling.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

I just saw the latest satellite image; I am not impressed. The 12Z gfs continues to dissipate Gaston in the short term. My forecast, no regeneration, remains the same.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The GFS is terrible at intensity and when Dean was heading through the Caribbean it barely showed anything at all. the HWRF develops it into a hurricane so does the GFDL

[Bailey1777]

looking at the satellite presentation imo regeneration is happening as we post

[Evil Jeremy]

When the NHC issues it's first cone (is it a matter of "if" at this point?), do you think they will be on the north side, the south side, or the middle of the model consensus?

I think it will be on the north edge of the models, with the center brushing Cuba's north coast.

[Florida1118]

looking at the satellite presentation imo regeneration is happening as we post

Now it just needs needs to hold it until 5pm or 2pm and then it gets it Credentials back. At the very least I think a 80%-90% is in order.

[hurricaneCW]

That's only if they actually decide to regenerate Ex-Gaston. Satellite imagery would suggest that they would eventually but we've seen time and time again that as soon as Gaston gains some convection, he loses it completely a few hours later.

[BigB0882]

I understand climatology says one thing but the current set up is far more important as that is the one true deciding factor on where this potential system will go. A recurve seems really unlikely but since the models can't even agree if we will have a storm at all, anything is possible. I'm sticking with my FL threat and I think this makes it into the Gulf. What "this" is has turned out to be the bigger question.

[Florida1118]

From Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1608

"The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression"..........Read the rest at the link.