ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

I still dont trust it in the short, medium or long range!!!!!!!

I guess you have the right to that, but the fact that the Canadian beat the euro in the 3 to 5 day range last year remains

As I said, the Euro isn't on that table...therefore there is no way to know whether it was gold or silver at that range!

But all I'll say is it nailed a lot of systems last year, odds are it probably came above the CMC!

To be fair the CMC has been quite consistant on a Mx/Tx landfall for most of its recent runs though...and its not been that far off with its solution in the last 48hrs or so with Alex.

ps, and yes *don't rule out* the chances of the northern solution, but if they are to come off then I'd like to see this lift out more then 280 like it is currently first.

[Ivanhater]

That would not make sense for the Euro not to be included on the analysis by the NHC, especially since they use it for verification. I'd have to go digging on the PDF files. So far the CMC is on top for the 3 to 5 range. I'll do more research though.

Nevertheless, the GFS joined the CMC with that turn, so it must be watched.

[ROCK]

That would not make sense for the Euro not to be included on the analysis by the NHC, especially since they use it for verification. I'd have to go digging on the PDF files. So far the CMC is on top for the 3 to 5 range. I'll do more research though.

Nevertheless, the GFS joined the CMC with that turn, so it must be watched.

Ivan, you dont like the EURO do you?

[americanre1]

180

So what intensity does this have Alex coming in at Sabine Pass as?? Category 1

[ROCK]

180

So what intensity does this have Alex coming in at Sabine Pass as?? Category 1

hard to tell on that map...I usually wait for the GFDL to get a hint but intensity on any model is pretty much like thowing darts...

[Ivanhater]

Did some digging and the Euro model is in the NHC verification and the Canadian did beat it in the 3 to 5 day range. Here is the chart

EMXI: The European model
CMCI: The Canadian model

[Squarethecircle]

I still dont trust it in the short, medium or long range!!!!!!!

I guess you have the right to that, but the fact that the Canadian beat the euro in the 3 to 5 day range last year remains

As I said, the Euro isn't on that table...therefore there is no way to know whether it was gold or silver at that range!

But all I'll say is it nailed a lot of systems last year, odds are it probably came above the CMC!

To be fair the CMC has been quite consistant on a Mx/Tx landfall for most of its recent runs though...and its not been that far off with its solution in the last 48hrs or so with Alex.

ps, and yes *don't rule out* the chances of the northern solution, but if they are to come off then I'd like to see this lift out more then 280 like it is currently first.

The Euro IS on that table. The four letter code for the Euro is EMXI. It did well last year on the 96-120 hours, but nothing came close to the CMC (which I find kind of odd as well).

[pepeavilenho]

Someone can give his opinion about this....

This is not Alex....

[Ivanhater]

That would not make sense for the Euro not to be included on the analysis by the NHC, especially since they use it for verification. I'd have to go digging on the PDF files. So far the CMC is on top for the 3 to 5 range. I'll do more research though.

Nevertheless, the GFS joined the CMC with that turn, so it must be watched.

Ivan, you dont like the EURO do you?

Lol.. l like the Euro, but I don't like anyone messing with my Canadian, which beat the Euro last year

All in good fun though

[KWT]

Ah fair enough, yeah thats true...

As I said the CMC does well in troughy situations and its not a bad model for actual tracks, but its just a waste of space for its development of storms, thats why its got an awful reputation...

last year thanks to the El Nino was clearly a very troughy year, this year will probably see the ECM come out higher then the CMC and probably GFS, and the UKMO could do well as it handles stronger upper high features better.

I remember CMC did well with Bill as did the ECM, both trounced the GFS with that one.

ps, I do rather like the CMC as it happens as well, always provides entertainment...the only thing that makes me wonder is yesterdays runs haven't done too bad with the last 24hrs motion of Alex, better then the Hurricane models anyway.

[Nederlander]

may I remind all of us not to jump on one run of the models.. when dealing with these models, the key is consistency.. therefore, I would not be surprised if the GFS and CMC bounce back to the south on the next run.. itll be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit however.. but so far it has stuck to its guns.. so before we start calling for a disaster in the gulf, lets see if the trending north continues on a consistent basis..

[Ivanhater]

Ouch...GFDL moves north

[ROCK]

good research Ivan......if the EURO tonight does a 180, I will eat some well deserve crow...

[Ivanhater]

Make that the Canadian, Nam, GFS and GFDL that moved north. If I were not a Roll tide fan, I'd say Hook 'em Horns!

[hurricaneCW]

The GFDL is also showing something right off the Carolina coast, the gfs has been pretty consistent with that feature as well. In fact the gfs kind of splits Alex into two in the GOM.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF stays with euro. So now we have a split camp tonight. 00Z Euro will be an interesting one

[Countrygirl911]

Hi My question is once it gets into the GOM will they get a better handle to where Alex might go? Also where do you think i might go? I am hoping it stays in mexico

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, the GFS has been pretty consistent in developing a low along the upper Gulf Coast and moving it ENE off the Carolina coast. The AFD in Mobile has mentioned it and the possibility of some heavy rain mid to late next week. We will see.

[americanre1]

HWRF stays with euro. So now we have a split camp tonight. 00Z Euro will be an interesting one

And that one comes to close to a Category 2 Hurricane. So it will be interesting to see what all these models and intensities will do in the next 2 days as it continues to go over the Yucatan Peninsula and then back into the BoC and GoM.

[KWT]

Look at where the GFDL emerges Alex though!

It emerges at about 20.5N, so its going to have to climb NW from now on, will be a good cal lfrom the GFDL if that comes off!

Certainly is a big split in the models tonight, the ECM/HWRF and UKMO vs CMC/GFS and the GFDL (I'm not going to count the NAM!) which is really a pretty equal billing.

Certainly isn't too conclusive whats going to happen, I think the confidence in at least a south Mexico hit has wavered a touch again.