ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Blown Away]

At least the forward motion has picked up and we don't have to watch the painful crawl across the Atlantic anymore. IMO the models that keep Gaston weak probably have to much land interaction with PR/DR/Cuba. I have started hugging the TVCN model because the NHC seems to follow that model. If Gaston redevelops before the islands I think he will be deep enough and move just north of the big islands and if he stays weak/shallow he will go south of the big islands.

[cycloneye]

Circulation tucked under convection.

[ROCK]

At least the forward motion has picked up and we don't have to watch the painful crawl across the Atlantic anymore. IMO the models that keep Gaston weak probably have to much land interaction with PR/DR/Cuba. I have started hugging the TVCN model because the NHC seems to follow that model. If Gaston redevelops before the islands I think he will be deep enough and move just north of the big islands and if he stays weak/shallow he will go south of the big islands.

The TVCN is just a blend that the NHC likes to hug...I havent fully jumped on board with the TVCN just yet. Just because I dont like blends....

as far as that climo map goes....again a few lat degrees south and its a whole different set of tracks. Gaston is not even a TD...and will probably develop tonight. Your going to tell me every single track on that map represents a DEVLOPING storm or a TD/TS in general. Look, climo is great and all but every track is dependent on the synopics at that particular time. It a every changing variable.

IMO, this does not recurve and if I lived in islands then FL I would be watching closely. I think its finally on its way and the models will start showing that this evening.

[KWT]

The problem simply is there is not enough instablity present out there to keep the convection firing near the LLC...Gaston is now the same as 93L this time last month which had a good circulation and at times decent convection but just couldn't hold it enough.

Could still redevelop but don't expect anything of note at this rate.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection is still just too intermittent and is not organized. so no upgrade till that changes.

[cycloneye]

They moved the floater more west and now the islands are in view.

Image at 16:45z.

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass:

[Nimbus]

We've seen naked swirls roll west thousands of miles only to dissipate but on the other hand if there is still any pressure gradient we could have a potential Katrina. Katrina looked like this coming in north of the islands. Whats the latest central pressure reading we have got on this? Without much convection he relative central pressure should be rising.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest ASCAT pass:
[img]http://a.imageshack.us/img840/227/wmbds100exgaston2010090.png[/img

here is a close up

[ConvergenceZone]

Just like WXMAN, Jeff Masters seems to think that a trough may pick up whatever becomes of Gaston.
He also thinks it will move just north of the islands.


I'm still not sold on that idea though.

[Blown Away]

as far as that climo map goes....again a few lat degrees south and its a whole different set of tracks. Gaston is not even a TD...and will probably develop tonight. Your going to tell me every single track on that map represents a DEVLOPING storm or a TD/TS in general. Look, climo is great and all but every track is dependent on the synopics at that particular time. It a every changing variable.

IMO, this does not recurve and if I lived in islands then FL I would be watching closely. I think its finally on its way and the models will start showing that this evening.

No, the majority of the models keep Gaston weak until it reaches the islands. I'm not really going w/ climo, I'm saying once Gaston reaches the islands the conditions should improve and if Gaston begins to develop/deepen he may skirt N of the big islands and if he remains weak/shallow he will go S or through the big islands. That's it, JMHO.

[SFLcane]

Looks on its way....

[Florida1118]

Looks a whole heck of a lot better in a few hours time.

[Gustywind]

Approaching the Lesser Antilles on the screen

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure if it is meteorologically sound, but like x-y-no said, this could be one of those Atlantic Highs finally filling-in off the east coast. So it could be delayed and be more of an August-like event. Meanwhile the subsidence conditions in the central Atlantic hurricane belt have returned with the negative phase of the MJO.

Gaston is showing 'haze' off its upper west quadrant outflow which is always a tell-tale sign of development. Whether the ULL will prevent further development I don't know but the wise watcher will realize Gaston is fulfilling the requirements for that threatening sleeper. It all depends on track and synoptics from here.

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure if it is meteorologically sound, but like x-y-no said, this could be one of those Atlantic Highs finally filling-in off the east coast. So it could be delayed and be more of an August-like event. Meanwhile the subsidence conditions in the central Atlantic hurricane belt have returned with the negative phase of the MJO.

Gaston is showing 'haze' off its upper west quadrant outflow which is always a tell-tale sign of development. Whether the ULL will prevent further development I don't know but the wise watcher will realize Gaston is fulfilling the requirements for that threatening sleeper. It all depends on track and synoptics from here.

Sanibel, September (the first few weeks at least) has historically produced memorable Cape Verde systems that have impacted Southern FL from the SE. So it's not really August-like at all (though end of August is another time where Cape Verde systems have impacted Southern FL from the east). Not saying it is headed to Florida but its not out of the realm of possibility given the synoptic setup and time of year.

[Macrocane]

Gaston looks very good at this time, convection over the center and now developing on the eastern side, I think advisories will be re-issued again today, obviously if the convection persists.

[KWT]

Just like WXMAN, Jeff Masters seems to think that a trough may pick up whatever becomes of Gaston.
He also thinks it will move just north of the islands.


I'm still not sold on that idea though.

Its going to probably come down to its strength, if Gaston only gets to TD strength or maybe a low end TS then it could well miss the upper trough because frankly its not all that strong of a feature on the models...

If it misses the connection then I suspect it goes west all the way till land, be that the Yucatan or Mexico/Texas.

Gaston does have a nice look to it BUT it has to hold this presentation now which has been this systems major problem in the recent past.

[lonelymike]

Just like WXMAN, Jeff Masters seems to think that a trough may pick up whatever becomes of Gaston.
He also thinks it will move just north of the islands.


I'm still not sold on that idea though.

Any scientific reasons why?

[gatorcane]

Looks like Gaston continues to move just N of west today.......

Click this loop to see what I mean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html