ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

OOps...Correction for the barometer : that's 1012,5mb ( and not 1015 ) steady.i just awake!!!
i SHUT DOWN MY COMPUTER BECAUSE OF THUNDER

Oh thanks HUC for this precious info! Thunder is rumbling lighlty in my area without wind and rain... but weather is grey and sad. I will try to call you in case of as i have to work this morning...
Gustywind

[wxman57]

For now, it remains a moderate tropical wave with a few heavy storms east of the wave axis. No reason to think it will develop over the next few days, as wind shear will remain high and then it'll be interacting with the larger islands of the northern Caribbean. Could be entering the SE Gulf near western Cuba by next Wednesday. That's when it has a shot at developing if there's anything left of the convection.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Puerto Rico is on a Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon thru Sunday.For more information from the islands,visit the Caribbean thread at U.S. & Caribbean forum.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=1992822#p1992822


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW LOCATED JUST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...MAINLY OVER WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON FRONT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY
LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF
LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
NOCTURNAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM COULD INCREASE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 18/10Z THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.
MEANWHILE...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TIST...AND TISX
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJPS IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...THE BEFORE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ACTIVE
AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOW VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS CONDITIONS
TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATOR SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 80 70 60
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 80 70 70

[Blown Away]

Big convection ball waning, but new convection building near the circulation center which is located near Guadeloupe. Where is Gustywind to give us a report??
Anxious to see the visible this morning!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Blown Away]

IMO, I think the shear has relaxed a bit and we will see new convection rebuild this morning as the area moves towards PR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Annie Oakley]

Gusty will be a major player this season I believe......like Hurakan.

[Annie Oakley]

AND CYCLONEYE

[cycloneye]

It may not mean anything,but I found somewhat interesting the Dominica observations.

WSW and West Winds in Dominica

[KWT]

Yeah that is pretty interesting cycloneye, would suggest there is probably some sort of lower level circulation present with this system afterall.

[xironman]

Since it is so disorganized and shallow do you think the BAMS with the more southern trajectory will be close?

[cycloneye]

I dont see a well defined circulation,but maybe a very weak reflection west of Guadeloupe (The Butterfly Island)

[KWT]

Looks like convection is starting to fall apart again a little bit in the last few hours, certainly not as good as it was 6hrs ago.

[tailgater]

Luis called it, the most vorticity just west of Guadeloupe.

this is about as weak as it's been since it left Africa, I would have thought it would have thightened up a bit after last nite.

[srainhoutx]

Certainly appears that 92L is nothing more than an open wave at this time. The big question is can it regain shear induced convection again.

[clfenwi]

12Z best track

AL, 92, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 622W, 25, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

Here is the whole Best Track data for 92L that began on the 11th of June.

al922010.invest

[cycloneye]

The most closest image you can find.

[Fego]

Latest, latest at 9:15 am.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[lrak]

It sure has grown since its inception.