ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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Re: Re:

#1061 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:48 pm

Nimbus wrote:
gatorcane wrote:it does seem that the ULL is heading west at a faster speed than 97L is moving. So there is likely going to be a window where conditions improve for development prior to reaching Florida.


We don't know what the surface pressure gradient is near the center axis of the wave. Typically if a system like this undergoes shear long enough the pressure gradient flattens out so it can't spin back up with a CDO. I agree that unfortunately our friend the ULL will not be able to match pace with 97L all the way to the gulf coast. As you stated the convection is already on the increase and the ULL has jogged west in the last few frames.


yeah the upper low has begun to move wnw at a faster pace this afternoon and the flow around 97L has begun to switch from a SW to more of S
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#1062 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:50 pm

Image

You know how ships are!!
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Re: Re:

#1063 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
he nails it once a season :lol: , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up :lol:


I'm beginning to think that's unlikely. I think someone here may well have his math test on Friday. Better study.


Ready to take the test!!!
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#1064 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:52 pm

convection is beginning to fire on the north side very close the developing center...
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Re: Re:

#1065 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:53 pm

x-y-no wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:i believe katrina was much further west and north when it developed. Between the Bahamas and FL


When she got named, yes. But TD 12 formed near Long Cay in the SE Bahamas, if I recall correctly.


i remember when it was named. My uncle stays in FLL and i talked to him the day before i was to leave and said, "at least no storms are going to be coming while im there." Sure enough, TD12 was named that afternoon. Eye came right over us. First real hurricane for me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1066 Postby canes04 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:56 pm

Come tomorrow, this will be a whole new ball game.
I'm going with a TD at 5am, TS after recon and possible cat1 Friday night.
The ULL winds should improve overnight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1067 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:57 pm

canes04 wrote:Come tomorrow, this will be a whole new ball game.
I'm going with a TD at 5am, TS after recon and possible cat1 Friday night.
The ULL winds should improve overnight.


Heck, we may not have to wait that long.
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#1068 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:59 pm

the low level structure is becoming much improved with some clear banding starting to take shape and the circ is becoming much more defined along with increased convection. its motion is wnw http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

the winds are well high enough for a TD and its likely there are some TS winds out there NE of the center.. so once the NHC decides the center is well defined enough (could be later tonight) they may upgrade.
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Re: Re:

#1069 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
he nails it once a season :lol: , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up :lol:


I'm beginning to think that's unlikely. I think someone here may well have his math test on Friday. Better study.


absolutely, that calc exam is happening, i told him last night i got burned by too many snowstorms that dropped 2-4 instead of 8-12 and i wasnt ready...again nice work on your morning forecast
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#1070 Postby chzzdekr81 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:03 pm

I'm thinking Code Red at 8. TD tomorrow if recon flies into it.
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#1071 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:03 pm

although I am surprised there is no TCFA yet...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1072 Postby fci » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:04 pm

canes04 wrote:Come tomorrow, this will be a whole new ball game.
I'm going with a TD at 5am, TS after recon and possible cat1 Friday night.
The ULL winds should improve overnight.


Can't quite jump aboard the thought that this could be a cat1 at all.
TD and "maybe" a weak TS Bonnie,at most; when it approaches SFL.
Most likely will be just a strong tropical wave when it arrives here bringing some gusty squalls.
Then the GOM'ers can worry about what happens upstream.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1073 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:09 pm

This has plenty of time to become Bonnie and strengthen between now and any potential Florida impact. I'm still in the camp of a moderate tropical storm by Friday, that is if the storm continues its development that it's going through right now.


(This is my personal opinion and not an official forecast, etc etc etc)
Last edited by AdamFirst on Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1074 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:10 pm

yeah it well on its way...
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Re: Re:

#1075 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:11 pm

Ivanhater wrote:What about that 2nd "landfall" if any. I have a test coming up as well :wink:

I'm feeling better there will not be any significant weather for my area.


Better move west if you want it canceled. Maybe to central or SE Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1076 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:13 pm

Before the oil and gas lukers on here get the wrong idea - the wave axis is visible and to the west of that is an area of weak turning - but nothing more as it moves rapidly westward with the screaming easterlies (in the 20s and 30s the past few days down here), and that's why the NHC downgraded the chance category:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

believe me, if the person who wrote the latest TWO had a choice he'd keep the chance percentage at 70%, but for him to downgrade it to 50% is as significant as the ranger at Everglades National Park saying "the mosquitos are bad today"...
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:19 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#1077 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:What about that 2nd "landfall" if any. I have a test coming up as well :wink:

I'm feeling better there will not be any significant weather for my area.


Better move west if you want it canceled. Maybe to central or SE Louisiana.


I dont think that's something we here are happy to hear right now....still keeping it weak?
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Re: Re:

#1078 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:What about that 2nd "landfall" if any. I have a test coming up as well :wink:

I'm feeling better there will not be any significant weather for my area.


Better move west if you want it canceled. Maybe to central or SE Louisiana.



wxman57 what are the chances that 97L moves south of Florida?
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Re: Re:

#1079 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:What about that 2nd "landfall" if any. I have a test coming up as well :wink:

I'm feeling better there will not be any significant weather for my area.


Better move west if you want it canceled. Maybe to central or SE Louisiana.


I'm thinking SE Louisiana as well, maybe MS coast. Nothing extreme though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1080 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:22 pm

Pressure continues to drop at this station.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MD0758

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Last edited by tolakram on Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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