ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

very disorganized is what RECON is finding

[Acral]

Time to upgrade immediately to Hurricane Danielle:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS/c ... rk=FL_ASOS

PUNTA GORDA,FL (PGD) ASOS reports gust of 118.0 knots from W @ 1841Z

Hmm.. landfalling waterspout maybe, or someone with a super-charged hair dryer blowing on the wind meter?

[HURAKAN]

latest

[jasons2k]

SST's from what I have read and been told by other pro mets is the gulf waters are the warmest on record..surpassing that of 2005. If that's the case, how come 'Katrina' or 'Rita' hasn't formed yet?

For one, neither Katrina nor Rita formed before August 11th.

We still have a lot of season left and I think we should save the comparisons for later. Yes, it's been 'the year of the ULL' so far but that may change on a dime. And remember, we have already had Alex which was very impressive for June.

Also, yes it's true that SSTs are just one of many factors that contribute to TC cyclogenesis. We have 85-90F water with no storms present most of the summer, every summer, across the Gulf. On a typical summer day in the Gulf, it's sweltering hot, the water is like a bath tub, and there's nothing more than typical isolated/scattered air mass thunderstorms.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that shear should collapse as we head into the peak of the season, and with the record SSTs and TCHP in place, we have a real potential to see some very powerful hurricanes when conditions do become favorable.

[HurricaneBelle]

Time to upgrade immediately to Hurricane Danielle:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS/c ... rk=FL_ASOS

PUNTA GORDA,FL (PGD) ASOS reports gust of 118.0 knots from W @ 1841Z

Hmm.. landfalling waterspout maybe, or someone with a super-charged hair dryer blowing on the wind meter?

It's a Cat 5 now:

PUNTA GORDA,FL (PGD) ASOS reports gust of 161.0 knots from SSW @ 1853Z

Maybe the ASOS is still screwed up from Charley.

[ROCK]

People really need to get over the SST's. They mean nothing if the upper-levels are not cooperative. Seas could be 200 degrees F and you have high shear, forget it. If they were absolutely necessary, then how come we had Hurricane Epsilon (waters ~72 degrees F) or Tropical Storm Zeta in January (waters ~70 degrees F), or Hurricane Alice in 1954...another January storm. There are others that have formed in April and May, too. SST's from what I have read and been told by other pro mets is the gulf waters are the warmest on record..surpassing that of 2005. If that's the case, how come 'Katrina' or 'Rita' hasn't formed yet?

People do not need to get over the SST's...they are as equally important as is the upper air environment. Without the fuel, you have nothing, with too much fuel you have possiblity of a devestating TC...

Look at Alex...but that guy in the middle of the GOM with it upper air environment before landfall and you my friend have a cat 5 looking you in the face........

if your looking for a Rita and Katrina I would ask you to wait just a few weeks longer.... we are only in the first week of August....

[Stormcenter]

Let's hope those aren't real wind speeds 3 weeks from now.

Time to upgrade immediately to Hurricane Danielle:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS/c ... rk=FL_ASOS

PUNTA GORDA,FL (PGD) ASOS reports gust of 118.0 knots from W @ 1841Z

Hmm.. landfalling waterspout maybe, or someone with a super-charged hair dryer blowing on the wind meter?

It's a Cat 5 now:

PUNTA GORDA,FL (PGD) ASOS reports gust of 161.0 knots from SSW @ 1853Z

Maybe the ASOS is still screwed up from Charley.

[brunota2003]

Remember, TCs are based off of sustained winds, not gusts

It does look funny to see this, though:

Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport
Lat: 26.92 Lon: -81.99 Elev: 23
Last Update on Aug 11, 2:53 pm EDT

A Few Clouds

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 82 %
Wind Speed: S 8 G 185 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1015.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 87 °F (31 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

So, according to that, as a TC, it wouldn't even technically qualify as a depression. As a tornado, however, it would be an EF4!

http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/5228/td5185oops.jpg

[ROCK]

SST's from what I have read and been told by other pro mets is the gulf waters are the warmest on record..surpassing that of 2005. If that's the case, how come 'Katrina' or 'Rita' hasn't formed yet?

For one, neither Katrina nor Rita formed before August 11th.

We still have a lot of season left and I think we should save the comparisons for later. Yes, it's been 'the year of the ULL' so far but that may change on a dime. And remember, we have already had Alex which was very impressive for June.

Also, yes it's true that SSTs are just one of many factors that contribute to TC cyclogenesis. We have 85-90F water with no storms present most of the summer, every summer, across the Gulf. On a typical summer day in the Gulf, it's sweltering hot, the water is like a bath tub, and there's nothing more than typical isolated/scattered air mass thunderstorms.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that shear should collapse as we head into the peak of the season, and with the record SSTs and TCHP in place, we have a real potential to see some very powerful hurricanes when conditions do become favorable.

very true Jasons.....was trying to say the same thing below...

[Florida1118]

TWC still is having a field day...didnt they send Mike Sydel to Louisiana? Hmmm...Maybe hes good luck and kills every storm that he tries to be in? I think he was in Bonnie too...

[jasons2k]

From 1 PM CDT Intermediate Advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

I have a question, and no I'm not joking...

Why does the NHC insist on using the word "dissipate" when they downgrade a system from TC/Depression status?

When I see the word "dissipate", I think of a mature thunderstorm that collapses, rains itself out, and 30-minutes later it has vanished into clear blue skies, with maybe some debris cirrus leftover making for a nice sunset. In other words, there is essentially nothing left. By definition, it has "dissipated". It's gone, dead, RIP, no more returns on the radar, it has evaporated, end of story.

But when a TC unravels into a sheared blob -- but that blob is still there and being watched -- I just wouldn't say it "dissipated". Weakened? Yes. Declassified? Yes. Dissipated? Not unless the satellite shot is totally void on any convection anywhere close to where the system was.

[HURAKAN]

leaving after 17 HDOBs, smells like TD #5 will be no more at 5 pm

[HURAKAN]

I agree jasons. I like to use the word "degenerate" and not "dissipate."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is pretty funny. The gulf coast will be spared, hopefully they can get some good rains out of it. Season is still far from being over.

[HURAKAN]

This seals the deal:


235
NOUS42 KNHC 111900
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT WED 11 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-073 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --AMENDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A.ALL TASKING FOR THE AIR FORCE ON TD-05
WAS CANX BY NHC AT 11/1830Z.
B. NOAA IS STILL PLANNING TO FLY SEVERAL
RESEARCH MISSONS THAT WERE ON TCPOD 10-072.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[gone2beach]

I can tell you that here, I am enjoying the cloud cover. This is the first day in weeks that my thermometer has not hit the 90* mark.

Also, just noting for some who may not know and yet another point of interest....when there is a storm in the gulf, no new home insurance policies can be written. That means sales of homes cannot go through.

[jasons2k]

I agree jasons. I like to use the word "degenerate" and not "dissipate."

Ah, there you go. See, to me, saying "TD#5 has degenerated into an open wave" is a lot more accurate than saying "TD#5 has dissipated"

If it dissipates, I would expect to see a clear satellite image of nothing left, wondering "where did it go? I can't find it any more...it must have dissipated" versus "those (you can point to them) are the remains of Ex-TD 5"...if you can point it out, it hasn't really dissipated, has it?

OK, I'm done. But if anyone has any insight into why they do this, I'd really like to know....

[thetruesms]

Ah, there you go. See, to me, saying "TD#5 has degenerated into an open wave" is a lot more accurate than saying "TD#5 has dissipated"

If it dissipates, I would expect to see a clear satellite image of nothing left, wondering "where did it go? I can't find it any more...it must have dissipated" versus "those (you can point to them) are the remains of Ex-TD 5"...if you can point it out, it hasn't really dissipated, has it?

OK, I'm done. But if anyone has any insight into why they do this, I'd really like to know....

They say dissipated because the cyclone has indeed dissipated. The convection is not the cyclone, it is just a component of it. As such, there may still be some remaining after the cyclone it was associated with is gone. That being said, I prefer to say degenerated because of the connotation that many have with dissipation as well.

[weatherSnoop]

I agree jasons. I like to use the word "degenerate" and not "dissipate."

Ah, there you go. See, to me, saying "TD#5 has degenerated into an open wave" is a lot more accurate than saying "TD#5 has dissipated"

If it dissipates, I would expect to see a clear satellite image of nothing left, wondering "where did it go? I can't find it any more...it must have dissipated" versus "those (you can point to them) are the remains of Ex-TD 5"...if you can point it out, it hasn't really dissipated, has it?

OK, I'm done. But if anyone has any insight into why they do this, I'd really like to know....

Dissipated is easier to type than degenerated

[Aric Dunn]

its kind of cool looking at the wind field over land in this loop ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html